Editorial

The Summer Ahead

Political posturing is nothing new and the first golden rule when replacing a previous regime is to slag them off. Or, put another way, question their ability to perform the role they were tasked with. The change of government in Bulgaria offers a new start for many and a fear of what comes next for others. However, the new government may well find itself unfortunate to find itself in the role of governance at such a politically and economically turbulent time. The world of travel and tourism will ultimately continue to grow and grow in the longer term, this is also likely for Bulgaria, but in the short term it may see choppy waters; partly because of what has gone on prior but partly also because of the current global turbulence which indirectly, may mean a much greater hands on approach is needed if the sector is to continue to thrive longer term.

The new Minister of Tourism was forthright with his view of the current situation of tourism on the Black Sea, which in effect translates to ‘’not much”. He noted that the country was expecting as serious decline in visitor arrivals and that the country was in Europe’s last place data wise with minus 4.3% visitors January – April whilst the rest of Europe grew by 4.5%. He is at least honest. The finger of blame was being pointed to the fact that a lack of past focus has seen tourists from the key markets of Romania and Germany take their business elsewhere (see article “Those Numbers” below). Does however this cover the real reason why the country may be entering choppy waters?

The period Jan – April covers the winter ski season when, to be perfectly blunt, the ski season locally was a disaster due to poor conditions. However, serious skiers be they from Europe or from the country itself, are already aware that countless ski resorts in Italy and Austria offer better value for money and countless more kms of piste than Bulgaria as well as more reliable ski conditions. Moving to the spring season we have something different.

The spring and autumn periods are the most popular for city break holidays and whilst Sofia as a standalone entity has seen weekend or short stay numbers boosted considerably over the past decade, they still lag a long way behind other popular city break destinations and even up and coming destinations. Is this down to weak marketing or has the word of mouth or maybe word of “’Social Media” already found its way to the target audience that Sofia is no longer a cheap, sorry, ‘’value for money destination”?  It is now beyond debate that for food and drink, Sofia is more expensive than just about any significant Southern European city break destination and that includes cities in Spain, Portugal and Italy. That excludes any discussion about the quality aspect! Where Sofia may gain a slight upper hand is in the cost of accommodation but even there, the savings are marginal and again, when comparing apples with apples the variance may not exist at all.

So, we come to the summer season. Suggesting that the summer season is already a disaster may be a bit premature as summer on the Black Sea in reality starts mid-June and not early May, as is the case with many of its Southern European rivals; a fact that makes investing in Black Sea tourism something of a challenge when the season is 12 weeks shorter than elsewhere Expecting sun bathing weather in Bulgaria in May is akin to expecting to be able to ski in early December: optimistic. The main summer season starting mid-June is the norm so it may thus be too early to write off the summer as an economic disaster just yet, though the warning signs are clearly there. One of these warning signs once again are the prices! Already people who have visited the seaside are coming back with horror stories on the prices being charged, particularly but not explicitly in respect of food and drink. A typical social media comment is one that came last week from an overseas visitor who owns an apartment on the Black Sea, last year she bought a pair of summer beach type shoes from a shop for 25 BGN, on her return this year, she went back to the shop and saw the same pair on sale for 25 Euro. The tale is typical and not just for shoes. In past articles we have warned that next year i.e., 2027, word may well have spread about the new cost reality of a stay in Bulgaria based on this years’ experience. However, the Minister of Tourism may well already have his finger on the pulse and that sentiment won’t wait until next year. In the meantime, the government typically earns close to 10% of its GDP from tourism, not as big a percentage as say Greece or Croatia, but the new government will not want to see this diminish anytime soon, hence a more hands on approach may well be the order of the day. That said, would it be mischievous to suggest that even a 50% drop in tourism numbers would still yield revenue income the same as last year!

Mark Thomas

EU Defeats Airlines

A notable event occurred mid June when the European Parliament and the European Council agreed to reform the EU 261 rules. The EU 261 rule, as many will be aware, are the stipulations that obliges airlines to compensate passengers in the event of flight delays or cancellations etc. and was first adopted in 2004 and have largely remain intact since then.

The new agreement maintains passenger rights to be compensated if a flight is delayed by more than three hours, to be re-imbursed or re-routed if a flight is cancelled less than 14 days before the scheduled departure. Compensation levels will be similar to the current levels and range from 250 – 600 Eu. The EU Council, under pressure from airlines, had originally wanted to cap this figure at 500 Eu and apply it only after a four to six hour delay. Airlines can reduce by 50% the amount of compensation if they re-route passengers to their final destination or if the delay at arrival does not last more than four hours.

Airlines are always keen to use the “exceptional circumstances” rule which avoids the need to pay compensation even when they don’t exist, typically these are Air traffic control issues, unruly passengers, weather etc (e.g snow covered runway in July. sic). Airlines also have a duty of care to passengers to provide refreshments every two hours of waiting time and a meal after three hours. In the case of extended delays they have to provide accommodation for up to three days.

Equally important is the fact that airlines will have four days to provide clear instructions to travellers affected by disruption on how to submit compensation claims and they will have 30 days to pay the compensation or explain why compensation will not be provided. It looks therefore like Wizz Air will have to undertake some hefty back office recruiting!

Whilst much of the above is a re-confirmation of what is already in place, what is new to the table is the right to carry on board a personal item such as a small bag or rucksack without any additional fee.  Airlines have to use the default setting on booking sites showing the price of a ticket including hand luggage.  Airlines can however offer cheaper tickets for those who wish to travel without hand luggage!

What will also grate airlines is the new rule that passengers will no longer be charged for correcting name spelling errors or for getting a printed version of a boarding pass if they have already checked in. Another loss for (some) airlines, is that they can no longer charge for an adult to be seated next to his/her child aged under 14. An extra charge Ryanair are infamous for.

The kicking and screaming has already started from IATA who had invested heavily in the lobbying of the EU Council to weaken passenger rights and take them more towards the USA environment where passengers have virtually no rights and airlines can do what they want, how they want and when they want with their passengers and where compensation does not figure in the dictionary.

Hands Free

Madrid looks like it will be Europe’s first city to operate robotaxi’s after Uber partnered with WeRide to offer driverless taxis in the Spanish capital by the end of the year. London is following close behind and may yet pip Madrid at the starting gate as Uber has partnered with Wayve to bring autonomous rides to the UK capital.

The partnership in Madrid follows on from the existing working relationship in the Middle East where the two already offer the service in Abu Dhabi and Dubai with Riyadh on the starting blocks. In Spain, several other major cities are being lined up to follow Madrid.

On a point of interest, football fans attending the World Cup in the American city of Los Angeles have been reporting the sensation of using such a cab for the first time. Almost all the sentiment is positive despite initial apprehension.

Currency Sham

The ability of Low-Cost Airlines to generate a profit when others appear to struggle always seems a strange one, yet the fine tuning of such airlines and their business practices perhaps shed more of a light on just how they manage this. A recent booking using Wizz Air was enlightening to say the least.

The cost of a flight Basle – Sofia – Basle with Wizz was priced at 324 CHF (Swiss Francs). Using the standard bank rate and indeed any exchange rate website shows this to be circa 351 Euros. When the currency is changed on the Wizz Air site to Euro’s the amount was a staggering 398 Euro’s. This will be the amount you would find is charged on your Euro bank card.

One questions the legality of this. Are banks or indeed enterprises allowed to charge over X% of the official bank rate? Is this something that the EU can jump onto? Or does the fact that this is Switzerland and not the Euro zone give Wizz or perhaps any airlines a get out of gaol card for free.

As we have said many times over the years, there are many ways to skin a cat.

Going Direct Down Under

Australian national carrier Qantas has announced it will start no-stop flights between Sydney and London from Autumn 2027 when they receive their first Airbus A350 -1000 ULR aircraft. ULR being the abbreviation of ultra-long range. The actual flight duration being 19 hours with the plane having the operational capability flying no-stop for 22 hours.

Not to be outdone on the PR side at the same time as Qanats made their announcement, Turkish also announced their own plans to start a direct Istanbul – Sydney flight when they too get their new ULR aircraft. They also added that whilst the new planes technically can manage the route, the challenge will be from a business angle and how much revenue they can generate from the flight, which may require more seats in the Premium cabins than is usual.

Qantas started non-stop flights from Perth to London in 2018 and whilst that route persists, since the conflict in the Middle East started earlier this year, the airline has had to make a refuelling stop in Singapore due to having a greater flying distance due to re-routing away from the conflict zone.

Gamble by Wizz

The roll out of wifi at 30,000ft has been long and arduous. Originally a profit centre for airlines, the public position has morphed over the years to one where it now expects to be fully connected 24/7 regardless of where they are, that includes on an airplane and it should be free!

Whilst traditional airlines have begrudgingly accepted the need to invest in wifi, Low Cost airlines always had a definite “no”’ to the concept of wifi on board their fleets, citing cost as one reason as well as the likely reluctance of their passengers to fork out money to any potential charge for using it. Wizz Air have decided otherwise. They have announced that from 2027 they will start to roll out Elon Musk’s Starlink wifi network on board their fleet of 265 aircraft.

Cynics would immediately think that Wizz will try charge for the service, but Starlinks own terms and conditions prohibit airlines from charging passengers extra to use the network. This is an expensive gamble by Wizz with the likes of Ryanair and Easyjet rejecting the same opportunity.

Its difficult to see how Wizz will effectively utilise Starlink unless passengers use the service to order more ancillaries though it’s also worth pointing out that crew can also use the system to improve their own process’s. The worst case scenario is a cultural doomsday scenario where the person next to you plays a hit film or even worse, chalga music at full volume for the duration of the flight without having the skillset to plug in earphones. The cabin crews on some routes may need specialised training in dealing withs such scenarios.

Remember the Song?

Back in the day for anyone of a certain age, 1979 to be precise, McFadden and Whitehead had a hit song called ‘’Ain’t no stoppin’ us now”, an expression that seems to be more commonly associated with Turkish Airlines these days. As their footprint grows and grows their latest project sees their 300 million Euro bid for a minority stake in Spanish airline Air Europa accepted by the Spanish government. This equates to some 25-27% of the airline.

Turkish appears to have out manoeuvred the likes of Lufthansa and Air France-KLM who also showed interest in acquiring shares during 2025. At the same time, the IAG Group (Iberia and BA) who have an existing 20% of the ownership of Air Europa, backed out of further investment after numerous failed attempts back in 2024.

Turkish view Air Europa as providing good opportunities for growth in the Latin America market as well as potential to create leverage through subsidiaries and joint ventures.

Those Numbers

Trying to predict the success or otherwise of the summer season that largely lays ahead of us is something of a lottery, however it is interesting to reflect on how tourism has evolved in the country over the past ten years.

Back in 2015 the largest source markets for Bulgaria were Romania and Greece both with 1m annual visitors, followed by Germany with 714,000 and then Russia with 650,000 and Turkey with 440,000. Fast forward to 2025 and the numbers are Romania in top spot again with 2.62 million visitors Turkey with 2.42m and Greece with 1.35m. Germany sits in 4^th position with 1.02m.

The takeaways from that are that numbers have massively increased but equally, some of this data may be warped by the fact that for Turkey in particular, these can be ex Bulgarians now classed as Turkish visiting “home”, or they can be day trippers trading goods. That said, there is most definitely a massive increase in genuine tourists from Turkey and noticeably in the ski season. Romanians, one suspects, are here for short visits for whatever reason and during the recent winter it was noticeable that the numbers skiing from Romania were down significantly; one explanation given by a Romanian was that its cheaper elsewhere! The numbers from Greece have held up, but again these tend to be short stay visitors. What are missing of course are the Russians, not that too many will be disappointed unless you had long term contracts with Russian Tour Operators. So, the underlaying question remains unanswered, where will this year’s summer tourists come from?

Whilst on the subject of numbers, international visitor numbers to Europe in the same period have increased from 600m to 793m. These numbers are led by visitors from the USA who made up between 25-30 m visitors in 2015 but soared to 35-40 million in 2025. Obviously, more and more they seem to be in search of history, tradition and culture. Though as one American colleague cynically suggested, “they may be looking for a second passport!”

Bulgaria has probably not benefitted hugely from increased numbers of visitors from the USA, but across Europe over the past twelve months it’s been noticeable how many American visitors there are. Many of course visit the usual European hot spot destinations where they can usually be heard before they are seen. Yet Europe’s ski resorts also seem to benefitting from this surge with Americans for the first time, making up a significant percentage of the skiers in many key resorts. Just what has driven this winter trend is another discussion point but a day’s ski pass in a main USA resort may set you back 250 – 300 USD and factor in the cost of flights to get there then even if a flight to Europe is a bit pricier, the ancillary costs of accommodation, ski pass, equipment hire etc can make the trip more than financially worthwhile.

Technology and Bureaucrats Create Perfect Storm

Leading Meetings Management Platform Cvent has announced last year’s top European meetings destinations based on the 20 billion USD spent via its platform, a ranking not out of kilt with other such rankings.

The top three places remain unchanged with London once again top of the pile followed by Barcelona and Paris. Lisbon came in fourth and Paris fifth. Next came Amsterdam, Berlin, Rome, Munich with Vienna coming in tenth.

In North America, the top three cities were Orlando, Las Vegas and Nashville. Whilst in Asia the top three cities were Singapore, Bangkok and Sydney. For the Middle East, the top three remained the same with Dubai in top spot followed by Istanbul and Abu Dhabi.

Easy to Lose

News emerging that EasyJet is the subject of a takeover by (yet another) US investment firm will not go down well in the world of European aviation.  Castlelake are the predators and have made three separate approaches to the airline in the last weeks. The most recent one being a 4.74 Billion GBP  which would give EasyJet shareholders 625p per share or a 24% premium above the current share price.

The US fund already owns 2.14% of the airline as well as being a majority shareholder in Scandinavian carrier SAS and has made this bid public to try garner shareholder support. EasyJet meanwhile call the attempted bid “opportunistic”.

Under EU rules, a European airline must be majority owned by EU citizens with Castlelake saying it had proposed an ownership structure that would comply with this requirement.

Stay tuned!

Not Quite the Eurovision

In the next edition of the Newsletter, we will try analyse the success or otherwise for the travel industry of the world’s most popular sporting event, the Football World Cup, currently taking place in the USA. Its no secret that with such events, this also includes the Olympic games, the overall visitor numbers to host locations tends to decrease as people stay away due to crowds and price hikes. Already the USA hospitality sector has said that its 2026 numbers are significantly down on the past years though this may not solely be down to the World Cup but also the global perception of the country.

One thing that domestic US sports events do not possess that sports from other countries do, is to have fans chants, songs and anthems that represent their team/country. In the USA sport is entertainment more than a competition with jeopardy. As fans from other countries have showed they tend not to respect something that alienates them and as the UK’s Daily Telegraph reports, fans from Australia set the trend with where their sentiment lies with chants en masse of “Aussie boys are on a bender, Donald Trump is a sex offender’”.  The English not to be outdone came up with “he’s fat with piles, he’s in the Epstein files’”.

Global media outlets are asking why the US president has been noticeable by his absence during this World Cup?  Perhaps the US authorities are trying to work out how to stop such chants, maybe crowd noises played via piped sounds is the solution for the domestic audience. Either that or summary arrest and deportation for having the audacity to execute freedom of speech. 

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