December 2024 Newsletter
- December 30, 2024
- Posted by: Jamadvice
- Category: 2024

Editorial
This is the time of year once again when we look back at some of the news items that featured each month in our Newsletters. Several themes persisted such as the attempt by those with King Canute esque beliefs that we in Europe should stop travelling and by doing so we save the world. The only problem with that is that the most of the rest of the world ignore this notion and do whatever they please however they please; any doubts about this comment should read up on Saudi Arabia’s hosting of the Football world cup in 2034.
Meanwhile the airlines come up with ever increasingly new idea to make money out of passengers and hotels have not been backward in conjuring up new charges which maybe partially explains the impressive financials the big hotel groups churn out on a regular basis. It also explains the boom in hotel construction globally, so clearly the thought that people will stop travelling is a misnomer.
Here in Bulgaria we are finally seeing the latest club membership being attained; full Schengen membership, though the block of land that is Serbia possibly curtails many potential benefits in the wider sense. Greece though will be smiling!
No doubt the New Year ahead will throw up its supply of mishaps, controversies, coffee comparisons and both good and bad news stories. Until they come around may we wish you all a very Merry Christmas and a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
Mark Thomas
Managing Director
Jamadvice Travel | BCD Bulgaria
January – Started with stating the obvious: travel is back. That is of course, despite the attempts by a few to pretend otherwise and if they can’t sustain this pretence, then the narrative becomes lets tray and stop people from doing what they want to do:-
It’s Back
Those who were hoping that travel would never be seen again at the same level it was pre-covid will be distraught to hear that the in the European Union, the number of nights spent in tourism establishments in 2023 reached 2.92 billion and exceeds the number of 2019 (the last “’normal”” year) when the figure was 2.87 billion; a 1.6% increase. Just for comparison, the figure ten years earlier in 2013 was 2,33 billion. The largest increases were seen in Malta and Cyprus which exceeded 20% followed by increases of over 10% in Slovakia, Latvia, Bulgaria, Austria, Czech Republic, Portugal, Romania and Greece. In absolute numbers the largest increase in actual nights was seen in Germany with 32.8 million extra nights and Spain with 32,3 million additional nights.
So, the bottom line is that the desire to travel, be it for business or pleasure, continues unabated despite the deliberate and often crude attempts to hinder its evolution.
February – whether we like it or not, electric cars are being forced upon us despite the infrastructure to support them being totally inadequate. It becomes another conversation as to whether such a mode of transport actually benefits mother earth or it benefits those who have invested billions in the concept:-
Electric Blues
Whilst the narrative remains that using Electric Vehicles will save planet earth and undoubtedly there has been a significant increase in the number of electric vehicles we see on our roads – especially second-hand Tesla’s here in Bulgaria whose original owners obviously had seen enough of them – electric vehicles are anything but the flavour of choice for many. A recent survey by our own BCD network revealed that 81% of car hire users do not book electric cars. The reasons for this are several but the two key reasons are lack of availability at rental offices (35%) and the poor range of the vehicle (33%). What is alarming also is that of those that do book an Electric vehicle, 29% wanted to simply try one! That of course could lead the user to hire or even buy one if the experience is positive, but it may turn them off for life if that experience is negative.
At the same time, Hertz has announced that it is selling 20,000 of its Electric Vehicles in the USA – roughly one third if its global fleet – due to higher maintenance and repair costs and is replacing these with petrol powered cars. The upshot is that it is clearly still a challenge to promote electric vehicles in the car hire sector as there are not only maintenance and repair considerations, but also the challenge of charging infrastructure and range to consider.
A recent random motoring article by a non-aligned source revealed that it took around 100,000 kms of driving before an electric car became more economical financially than a petrol car, though that’s not an article nor a fact one expects to be widely publicised in the mainstream.
March – the argument of how the working life should be constructed i.e. home office, physical presence in an office or a hybrid working concept, is an argument that will run and run with no obvious outcome. There are positives and negatives for each, though the argument that it’s the tail that wags the dog, with the tail being the employee and the dog the employer, resonates for many. We are not the first to note that the two previous busiest days of the week to travel i.e. Monday and Friday, have been replaced by Tuesday and Thursday! Anyone who doubts this statement should witness the roads in Sofia at rush hour on a Friday and ask “” where have all the cars gone?” The answer is” to their villages”.
It’s Official – Friday Cancelled
The debate about the advantages and dis-advantages of working from home vis a vis the office is one that seems unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. The logical compromise answer is that some sort of hybrid working practice will prevail for the majority of organisations whether they like it or not. One interesting spin off from this is something that we touched one a year or so ago is that Thursday is the new Friday and Tuesday is the new Monday. Or blatantly put, no-one wants to slap it to the office on a Monday or a Friday. This then is impacting transport infrastructure such as airports and railways where the Monday and Friday rush has moved to Tuesday and Thursday. A very good example of how tradition is being forced to change also appears on London’s Underground.
To meet the demands of the new world order, Transport for London is trialling the impact of making Friday totally “’off-peak’”. Historically, all weekdays are deemed peak between the hours of 06.30 – 09.30 and 16.00 – 19.00. A part of the experiment is to gauge whether people can be tempted back into the office with cheaper fares. However, it would be surprising of people thought saving a couple of GB pounds would tempt them to travel an hour each way to the office!
What also needs to be considered is that transport providers such as Transport for London will earn less revenue with people working from home and making fares “’off peak” would seem to indicate desperation in trying to balance the books rather than anything else.
April – the argument surrounding using SAF in aviation are murky to say the least. That however does not prevent the airline industry from coming up with the idea to charge more on a ticket for “’using”’ such fuels. So, how do the airlines plan what percentage will be used on each flight depending on how many people have been convinced to pay a “feel good tax” on the pretext they are helping save the earth. It used to be the narrative to plant a tree that will give you a feel-good factor, now its pay more for a fuel that likely you will never see of make use of on your travels. Y2K was the first great scam of the modern era, the success of which has been an inspiration for many more since.
Fuel For Thought
SAF (Sustainable Airline Fuel) is one of those words that every self-respecting business feels it has to be associated with. Not necessarily because they believe in it, but simply because it has to be seen to be following the narrative. The idea is that SAF replaces traditional aviation fuels either fully or partly and thus the earth is saved from the world’s greatest source of pollution i.e. air travel. The fact – as both travel people and anyone with any degree of commons understands – is that aviation accounts for roughly 2.5% of global carbon emissions. Cardboard boxes with pizza and Amazon home deliveries probably generate more emissions in the bigger picture of life, but that is not a fashionable nor taxable conversation. Governments in the civilised world are pressured by the minorities into being seen to do something: votes count, but the decisions they make may either be not quite fit for purpose; or they deliberately fudge it, safe in the knowledge that – to put a colloquialism into the equation – that peeing into the wind is not a good idea for the pension.
Not wishing to use any particular country as an example of that, one European government has just announced that it will require 10% of all fuel used by airlines to come from sustainable sources by 2030. However, it also adds that any increase in fares must fall within usual price fluctuations. So, in effect, more expensive fuel has to be used but fares can’t increase. Seriously. Actually, fares won’t increase but the taxes will.
Presently, some airlines are offering travellers the chance to feel good about themselves by letting them pay more for the pleasure of knowing that a small percentage of the fuel on board the plane they are using is made up of SAF. Note that this is an extra amount on top of the standard fare. The cost of producing such fuels is far from cheap and aside of this, it may not be incorrect to say that the production capacity globally to produce such fuels would leave even a 10% target as optimistic. Then there is the touchy taboo subject that no-one dares open a conversation which surrounds both the desire and the ability of less wealthy nations to follow this route. A 10% saving on a global impact of 2.5% is small: factor in the likelihood that 75% and more of countries will not even bother with the subject, this means this figure of 10% suddenly becomes 10% of almost nothing.
We have often mentioned the economic realities of the world, part of that envisages the numbers of people who wish to travel and who can afford to travel rising exponentially over the next decades and by 2025, travel and tourism will account for 10% of the global economy. Airlines have hundreds and indeed thousands of new planes on order in readiness for this surge and like with the Covod experience, no matter how hard restrictions on people’s liberty and freedom are applied, human behaviour and human desire will win in the end. This equates to the desire of people to travel.
Turning our noses up at PR stunts surrounding sustainability however does not mean that we all accept that the garden is rosy, it is not, but being pragmatic and realistic is a better way forward as eventually, someone will tell the king he is not wearing clothes. Technology is driving change and efficiencies across many industry sectors and this is true of the travel industry. Planes are now some 25% more efficient than the last generation and the like with cars, technology continues to evolve and continue the drive to even more efficiencies. This continued acceleration of technological advancement will stay with us for generations and this figure of 25% will likely continue to increase with every passing year. More efficient planes may also mean more expensive planes, which in turn equates to increased fares. At least this will be a black and white process with real measurable and tangible benefits for planet earth and everyone in the food chain, including governments who revel in the increased tax collection.
The last time we looked 25% of a whole (industry) was greater than 10% of a small section within it. Meanwhile the pizza and Amazon delivery packages mount up, unabated and unchallenged!
May – if we believe what we are told, then AI will replace most of the jobs that now exist. The travel industry is often cited as one of the first areas that AI can replace humans, though it’s never been made clear in what area! AI could enhance part of the travel booking process, but travel is about more than process. For many people, the planning and booking part of the travel is a key part of the fun and not a chore, is the idea of Ai that people should be denied this? Or will the plane/train/car element connected with a journey be processed automatically together with the flight to a desert island that will stop off in Vladivostock because it’s cheaper? However, don’t mention the risks associated with privacy and data as this will scupper the investments of all those who have put their life savings into AI development!
AI
The topical subject of AI will either have people rolling their eyes or drooling about its perceived potential in the sphere of travel. Whilst we are not yet at the point where AI is actively forcing the hands of how we book and manage travel, the techie nerds continue to at least talk about enabling AI to enter into the travel world and are chomping at the bit. One clear potential impact of AI is the depersonalisation of business relationships within travel, where traditionally this is one of areas why people actually work in travel and why indeed people do travel. That said, those seeking to depersonalise it will see this as an advantage as they work remotely in between walking the dog, shopping and playing their computer games.
Technology does have the power to enhance processes rather than replace them and AI will have some sort of impact on travel both negatively and positively. How that is managed becomes a totally different question.
On a serious note, one area though that is likely to hold back AI within travel in the larger corporate world is in the area of data privacy, a subject not on the table a decade ago but very much centre stage nowadays. This will present businesses and indeed individuals with serious concerns about where their and their company data is ending up, though perhaps cynically, its already in China.
June – every action has an equal and opposite reaction according to Newton’s Third Law. So, as travel and tourism booms, the opportunity for people to make money increases. At the same time the over fill of travel can have a negative impact on society if it is not managed properly. The arguments of residents in places like Mallorca and Venice are valid, but it should not be difficult to manage these issues but perhaps the local authorities were too busy milking the golden goose that they forget about the key ingredient necessary in this game: local people. Take away local people, local culture and the local spirit and what is left will not last very long. Better manage it properly from the outset perhaps?
Managing Tourism Better
The Covid era is behind us and people have developed an inherent desire to travel, due in part possibly by the restrictions previously imposed on them.; this is a fact and not an opinion. The current year of2024 is set to be a record breaking one for each and every aspect of the travel industry, be that for the airlines and the numbers who will take to the skies, or the hotels, resorts and cities who will absorb this demand. Like with everything else however, the news story that often garners the most attention is not the success story, but the bad news story. When that is applied to travel, that story seems to be focussing on the small minority who think that travel and tourism is one of the world’s greatest evil. Two examples have made media news over the past couple of months, the first example is Venice which in fairness has never been far away from a bad ness story for several years, the second is the island of Majorca.
With Venice, the battle of traditional urban life v get rich quick commercialism has already seen cruise ships banned from entering the cities canals, the number of cruise ships entering the city had gone beyond saturation point. Another recent move has seen the city apply a 5 Euro charge to day trip visitors in another attempt to limit their flow. Other moves by the city authorities also sees loudspeakers banned and group sizes limited to 25 in size. Whether these moves will have the desired effect, only time will tell and anyone who has visited Venice recently will testify that the visitor numbers consistently make appreciating the historic city a test of endurance rather than a spectacle of enjoyment. What is also becoming a serious issue for Venice is a decreasing resident population which has the knock-on effect of reducing the people working in the hospitality sector. Indeed, a recent observation from visitors noted that it was rare to see an Italian working in a restaurant. Some 49.000 tourist beds can be found in the historic centre of Venice which outweighs the number available to workers. Some 50,000 people now live in Venice whereas in the 1970’s that number was 150,000. The net result is that locals simply can’t afford to live there so have left the area to seek employment elsewhere.
The Island of Majorca has also seen resentment towards tourism and some 10,000 people participated in a march in May highlighting the issues tourism was causing the island. However, if “only’” 10,000 have negative sentiments towards the hospitality industry then is that more a case of a noisy minority getting un-necessary media coverage? Majorca has a population of some 940,000 people and the travel and hospitality industry employs over 100,000 people which is over 20% of the islands total workforce. Over 3000 flights per week arrive at Palma Airport in the summer months. These bring in tourists that contribute 40% of the islands GDP! 10,000 people have to be listened to, but so too do the voices of 100,000. We do live in a democracy after all, don’t we?
The fact of the matter is that whether we like it or not, people today want to travel more and more and equally, more and more people have the financial resources and indeed the time to travel more frequently. This statement would also include the tourists from new source markets such as China and India as well as some of the old favourites like the Koreans and Japanese. People from these markets want to discover the world and it’s hard to imagine them travelling to Rome and Paris and not seeing the Coliseum or the Eifel Tower; demand has to be satisfied. What the problem is comes down is how tourism is managed, or indeed is not managed and who wins and losses from it. In the case of Majorca or indeed any island, it is surely easy to restrict arrivals at airports and ports by limiting the flights and boats that arrive. This is harder to do for a city like Venice. Limiting visitor numbers though goes against the free-market concept but if the free market allows apartment holders to convert their properties into short term lets only, then surely this is short termism and in the economic result in the end is that everyone loses. Except that is, the early entrepreneurs will have sailed off long ago into the sunset with their fortune.
July/August – There is no denying that the new operators of Sofia Airport know what they are doing; their background is operating airports, which is the opposite of those political appointees who were positioned at the head of the Country’s main aviation gateway for decades. The concessionaire is not a charity, they are a business and will use all of their experience to make money whilst improving the travel experience (sic). We warned that it will be a culture shock when they try to charge for dropping off and collecting loved ones from the airport. That is about to start on January 1 and one can already foresee the mayhem as people queue at the entry gates to the airport as they attempt to avoid payments. Oh yes, the trend was set some time ago when it appeared that Sofia Airport had the most expensive airport coffee in Europe, obviously reflecting the affluence of the local community! Not.
The Coffee Test
The ongoing rebuild (we can’t think of a more suitable word that doesn’t cloak the truth) of Sofia Airport is certainly not slowing and the new airport operators have to be applauded for the work completed so far, especially airside in the departure areas. Having also to factor in the new Schengen requirements will also likely have been a small headache. One thing that is noticeable however is the prices of the food and drink in the various cafes.
We challenge anyone to come up with a more expensive cappuccino at any major airport in Europe. 11 Leva for a standard cup of coffee certainly lays down a marker that will be difficult to challenge. Clearly the prices are not designed with the local economy in mind and one can only assume that the rents are so high for the tenants that they are forced into price gouging the captive audience. Please let us know if you find any more expensive coffee’s; regular size and not large that is.
A word of warning also for Sofia Airport users, don’t be surprised if plans are on the table to charge cars for dropping off and picking up passengers; many airports already employ such charges across Europe and this will be a significant revenue earner for the airport operators. Just how that sits with the local population and what methods are employed to avoid such fees will be an interesting watch.
September – the editorial touched on the rise and rise of Airbnb has been spectacular and this has been a win win situation for both the owners of properties who can earn (un taxed) revenue for short term rentals , which also encourages people to travel to a destination on a budget that suits their pockets. This in turn helps the local economy in numerous areas. What Airbnb is increasingly doing however is limiting the availability of accommodation stock for those wanting a long term rent and thus indirectly forcing up rental prices. There is also an underlying reticence from authorities who are missing out on taxes that would normally be collected by hotels who traditionally have housed most visitors to a destination. The hotels are also somewhat aggrieved that they have to pay taxes for accommodating people whilst Airbnb owners get off scott free. This issue is already being addressed by key cities such as New York, Barcelona and Berlin. The golden era of Airbnb is not over, but it is about to be curtailed somewhat.
A World With No Airbnb
The rise and rise in popularity of Airbnb properties might be reaching a finale. As tension mounts in many tourist hotspots, the concept of staying in an Airbnb might have had its heyday. Barcelona is the latest city to take action, announcing that from 2028 it will ban short term rentals in an attempt to put around the 10,000 Airbnb properties back into the housing market. Barcelona is only the latest and not the first to take action. It has been illegal since September 2023 in New York City to rent out an apartment as a short term let unless you are registered with the city and you are present in the apartment where the guests are staying. Berlin banned Airbnb’s and short-term rentals in 2014 before bringing them back into the fray but under tight restrictions in 2018. In California, coastal cities including the likes of Santa Monica, short term rentals are either banned or highly regulated.
Its not just Airbnb who are coming under scrutiny although, their 50% market share means they are the facilitator that garners the most attention, other well-known brands like Expedia and Booking.com are also in the target sights of various authorities.
Its hard to believe but this mode of accommodation in its current guise has only really been around since 2007 when Airbnb started operations and clearly its popular with some segments of the population, but the evil enemy for others. So, what do we gain and what do we lose without a short-term rental market?
Its is argued that staying in such accommodations gives one a more authentic feel of a place and the prices tend to fit more pockets than a hotel would do. Also, such accommodations are ideal for families who have two or more children and who want to travel but also want a degree of flexibility. Whilst having an authentic feel to a place is generally a positive for most travellers, if you take Malaga as an example, it was found that in the central area of the city, some 25% of all apartments were being used for short term rentals, so the question begs how authentic is it really?
London has, apparently, the most short term rental properties with a supposed 150,000! A staggering number whilst the UK has 500,000 properties available in total for short term rent! Spain though is regarded as being at the epicentre of “’over tourism’” with the likes of not only Malaga impacted but also Barcelona, Mallorca and the Canary Islands. Local workers are squeezed out or forced to pay between 1200 – 1300 Euros a month for rent when the average salary is 1600 Euros! As local people are forced out, the feel of any city is thus changed irrevocably.
Not wishing to dwell on Spain on this subject, on the other side of the fence is the fact that tourism contributes some 13% to the GDP of the country or translated, that’s 200 billion Euros! A fine line has clearly to be trodden. The answer to the problem is arguably not banning such types of tourism, but regulating it. Berlin for example restricts owner-occupiers to 90 days short term rentals a year.
Whilst this debate rumbles on, watching carefully at the periphery are the hotels! Less accommodation stock in the form of short-term rentals will mean an increase in demand for hotel rooms and that means its rub hands in glee time for hotels. New York Hotel rates are typically 300 USD per night on average, helped in no small way by the restrictions on short term places to stay. Europe has more hotels planned in the pipeline than ever before and it may well be they cant be opened soon enough. The bigger picture question though will be, who wins and who loses ultimately if tourism shrinks in a location or a country?
October – this months Editorial once again touched on the continued noise created by a noisy minority who in another measure could best be described as idiot extremists. This follows an ongoing trend of trying to stop or restrict people from travelling under what could best be described as flawed thinking. A rather unfortunate analogy is made with communism, a concept that everyone knew was flawed and very few supported, but the minorities are usually heard and not seen and challenging such radical thinking is often not good for the carreer nor the pension.
Forced Thinking
Democracy is an interesting word as by definition it translates to” power of the people”’, the assumption being that this means the majority of people get their way as opposed to the minority of people. However, as we see in the election of governments in many parts of the world, the majority are quickly silenced. Isn’t that how Communism came to be? In our modern world we also find ourselves dictated to by the loudest voices in all walks of life. Standing up against these voices, like those who stood up against communism, often does not end well and even challenging the narrative in itself often makes people social outcasts. The world is getting smaller, and people want to do things they may never had the chance of doing in past eras. Here in Bulgaria for the past two decades (or less), the population has had the chance to see the wider world and not just the world the Communist party wanted them to see. A quick day or two in Greece is nothing fancy, yet not even three decades ago, this was but a dream for many, despite it being within touching distance. There is also the argument that has the local population travelled more and more, they learned from their experiences and saw just what the country needed to do to “” catch up”” with Europe. It hard to imagine what the country would be like if its population had not had this opportunity to see the world. That world by the way does not stop at Europe.
Its thus hard to classify the New Economics Foundation and the group Stay Grounded as anything more than modern day Communists. A more endearing term might be to refer to them as radicals or extremists’ nutters. Sadly, they attract media attention. Their objective in the short term is to charge regular travellers with a frequent flying levy. In short, anyone who takes the plane more than once is charged extra. Just how this could be managed would be an interesting discussion that would tax the George Orwell 1984 theory to the absolute max. However, they argue that such a process would reduce carbon emission caused by aviation by 21% of which 54% would be secured from just 4.5% of the population of Western Europe. The additional taxes, they claim, would generate 63.6 billion Euro per year; a six-fold increase in European aviation tax revenues. Scratching your head already? Indeed you should be as we assume not many of them are economists.
At this point it’s reasonable to suggest that they are making the numbers up based on hot air. It may well be that any revenue raised can help fund other NGO’s et al, to produce other nonsensical reports and door stops whilst keeping themselves in business. Might it just be that technology can produce a 21% reduction in carbon emissions by improvements in engineering and aviation technology! Just for the record, lest we forget, aviation is responsible for producing 2% of the worlds carbon emissions. The food eco system produces 37%. Aviation though is a soft and lucrative target that can help pay the bills and fund consultants everywhere.
As if to prove a point, a survey by our own BCD Networks consultancy arm, Advito, yielded the fact that in the “real world” sustainability is amongst the least important consideration when travelling. Just 4% of people surveyed indicated they take sustainability into consideration when booking flights. More important to them in the real world are arrival and departure times or flight duration (71%), price (51%) and their company travel policy (49%). In other words, they are influenced by what is important to them, as opposed to what is important to others. When it comes to travelling for business, the stick is more likely to be wielded by the Travel Manager ie the person who puts travel policy together and thus any travel “’requirement” can be steered by him/her regardless of whether that person is a user (traveller). The process gets to sound more Orwellian the more one thinks about it. The point however should be made that travellers are not anti-sustainable in their own lives, its likely everyone does something to help planet earth but in a way that’s convenient and cost effective to them, be that cycling to work, re-cycling materials and even not taking a plastic bag from the supermarket check-out each time. People are different from each other and each has their own priorities, they don’t want to be “’told”’ what their priorities should be.
November – when Bulgaria entered the Schengen zone in March of this year it strangely didn’t do so fully! Just how you can be a half member was unusual to say the least. Anyway, the second half of the equation finally kicks in on January 1st when Bulgaria becomes a full Schengen member. What this translates to is that the land borders will start to operate under Schengen rules in addition to the air and sea ports. The question for Bulgarian tourism then becomes: 1) will this allow easier access for Europeans into Bulgaria, 2) will this facilitate easier access for Bulgarians to neighbouring alternatives like Greece or 3) nothing will change. It’s a hard call to second guess what the impact will be longer term but clearly, no-one will miss the hours long queues to enter Greece!
Almost There
It looks like Bulgaria may soon become a ’full” Schengen member in 2025 after the right noises came out of a meeting of EU interior ministers in Budapest. The country became a ‘”part” member in March of this year in that Bulgaria’s air and sea ports became part of the Schengen zone but not the land borders. A somewhat strange hybrid but this was perhaps best viewed as a step in the right direction. The new state of play indicates that by the end of this year, a date will be set whereby Bulgaria becomes a full Schengen member.
From a tourism perspective the potential benefit of the absence of a border between Bulgaria and both Romania and Greece will allow potentially even more Romanian and Greek tourists to holiday in Bulgaria. Romanians are already the number one source market for the country’s tourism numbers.
The flip side of full membership is that it will also make it easier for Bulgarians to visit Greece, the numbers of which seem to be in the ascendancy as the value for money there is perceived by many to be better.
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