Editorial

This edition is our 300^th! Quite some feat. The first paper edition appeared in 1999 before moving to its electronic form in 2006. Mathematicians will have calculated that this doesn’t equate to 12 per annum, which is correct as we do a combined summer months version. The world has changed massively since those early days not just in travel but with the society we exist in. Not always for the better we should add. Today, the world shows us clearer than ever who our enemies are but alarmingly, its harder to understand who your friends are. The same comment may also be apportioned at the travel industry where shareholder interests rule the roost at the expense of service and quality.  That is despite more and more people travelling and wanting to travel. This has not stopped the noisy minority in trying to stop freedom of choice, but just like the electric car, people are now making up their own mind on what they can and cannot do and the growth of travel shows no sign of abating.

Wishing everyone and Merry Christmas and a Happy, Safe and Prosperous New Year.

The Greenwash

Beer producer Carlsberg used to have a slogan dating back to 1973 which proudly stated it was “’Probably the best lager in the world””. Whether it was or not was, in those days, never challenged and many a person, of a certain generation, will forever associate the slogan with Carlsberg.  The Carlsberg brand ran for an eternity on that slogan despite people eventually wising up to the reality as marketing and advertising became part of the daily staple. It was simply a mantra quoted so often and seen so often on football shirts, people believed it and arguably if you say or hear something often enough; you also start to believe it. For travel, enter the expression ‘’Carbon Offsetting and/or climate change” and you create a whole new marketing opportunity. Especially if you are an airline and also increasingly, a hotel chain, who now tells everyone you are green, the greenest, the greenest environmentally conscious company in Europe, even the planet and you are saving the world. Yes, the message is an easy one to get out and no-one dare challenge you.

Last year, the European Union challenged 20 airlines for making potentially misleading claims about their green credentials, claims that CO2 emissions caused by flights could be offset either by climate projects or using sustainable fuels, for which consumers could contribute by paying additional fees. The actual list of challenges the EU made to airlines are interesting as each and every traveller can identify with them: –

• Creating the incorrect impression that paying an additional fee to finance climate projects with less environmental impact or to support the use of alternative aviation fuels can reduce or fully counterbalance the CO2 emissions;
• Using the term “’Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) without clearly justifying the environmental impact of such fuels: –
• Using the term green, sustainable or responsible in an absolute way or use other implicit green claims;
• Claiming that the airline is moving towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions without clear and verifiable commitments, targets nor independent monitoring system;
• Presenting consumers with a calculator for CO2 emissions of a specific flight without providing sufficient scientific proof on whether such calculations are reliable and without providing information on the elements used for such calculation’
• Presenting consumers with a comparison of flights regarding their CO2 emissions without providing sufficient and accurate information on the elements the comparison are based on.

In short, it can best be summarised that whatever you read about CO2, Carbon Offsetting claims and the social benevolence of using SAF to power aeroplanes: treat it with a pinch of salt. Years ago, Betamax and VHS vied for dominance in the video cassette game, now the fight is between the multitude of tools that claim to represent a true reflection of anything carbon and which therefore are capable of helping save the world: their disciples are their clients i.e. airlines and hotels.

If only a standardised and publicly available, easily understood methodology was available to calculate emissions, then all would be clear and transparent; though cynically this is probably the last things airlines want as it deprives them of a marketing message and increased revenue potential.

Last year the EU unveiled the FEL (European Flight Emissions Label) which is aimed to harmonise the disarray around flight emissions. A part of the rationale was that a clear and consistent single measure would help consumers choose between airlines depending on their emissions. This is a significant shift in the move towards utopia as we always thought price was the most influential deciding factor (SIC).

So, whilst the FEL is a great idea in theory, the next battle is less the battle of two ways to play a video cassette and more like which of the hundreds of crypto to choose.  So which currency do you use as a measure Litecoin, Cardano or XRP? Likewise which carbon measure of the many out there do you adopt? The case is further complicated by the fact that all the various tools of methodology are all currently being fast tracked in their development: the last one standing wins. What is also interesting to observe is that the measure or standard (DEFRA) many airlines like to cite in figures currently, is the Betamax equivalent in the game! We all know what happened to Betamax.

So, the next time you open the Wizz Air app and see the slogan “Fly The Greenest”” ask yourself how they make such a claim. The next time you see a suggestion from an airline that you buy a “Green Fare’’ ie one that’s more expensive than others, ask yourself how the airline uses the money from the premium you paid for that Green Fare and how do they know how many people on the flight did the same and will they use your revenue for the “special”” fuel on your flight? Lufthansa have proudly sold green fares for some time now and are rolling them out further. They claim that (quote) “” the use of alternative aviation fuel within Europe and Africa reduces CO2 emissions by 20 percent and the remaining 80% is offset through climate protection projects””. A perfect example of what the EU is trying to gain control of.  It is as if the airline industry turns a blind eye unless it can see the financial benefit of a certain action. The message used to be “” plant a tree”’ to save the world or at least pay extra to allow a tree to be planted. Nowadays planting a tree is old fashioned and people’s conscience feels a thousand percent better if they pay the extra for “CO2 friendly fares” and then they can feel assured they have done their own little bit to re-shape and save the world, a box has been ticked and who cares if the rest is a load of bull.

Different Planet

As the adoption of the Euro as the official national currency steps closer for Bulgaria, comments by the Ministry of Tourism on the issue are something of a head scratcher. The comment was that “’Euro accession is a strategic opportunity will strengthen Bulgaria’s position in the European Tourism Market”.

The comment was made at a National Tourism Board get together, where the role of tourism in the economy and benefits the introduction of the Euro will bring to the sector were outlined. Whether the rationale cited has merit or whether it’s a political posturing is another question. What is clear is that the Euro will indeed affect everyone; a statement most definitely succinct. Just how it will affect people and whether it will be positive or negative is a totally different question.

The point was made that “’the introduction of the Euro will facilitate the travel of tourists from the Euro zone, who in 2024 represent 30% of all foreign visitors to Bulgaria. Question – what about the other 70% and how will it benefit them?

Further it was added that “’the single currency will eliminate the need for currency exchange sand will ensure greater price transparency thus making Bulgaria an even more attractive destination (quote)”.  One assumes here they are referring to the 30%.

In days gone by we are not convinced that the Deutschmark holding Germans thought too much about how many Drachmas they could buy with each D’Mark before they travelled to Greece nor how many Pesetas the Pound carrying Brits would could buy with each pound note before setting off for the Costa’s. Apples were compared with oranges and no-one really bothered about it and it certainly did not influence the choice of holiday destination for the Germans or Brits. As the Euro came to the fore, the price of apples in one country could more easily be compared with the price of apples in another and again, whilst this still does not top the list of biggest considerations in choosing the family holiday, it does start to hold some sway.

What the Euro does allow is to compare the price of a sun lounger, a beer and a decent meal in Spain with the same in Italy and Greece. Equally, the cost of a lift pass, hotel and pair of hired skis in Austria can easily be compared with the same in France and Italy. Bulgaria now joins that list of where apples can be compared with apples. Even before the Euro is introduced, the debate more recently is whether a) Bulgaria is cheaper than XYZ and b) even if it is cheaper does it offer better value for money? The Euro will help formulate a more accurate answer.

One fact that is undeniable, even for a politician, is that all countries that adopted the Euro saw a significant increase in prices as people cashed in on the opportunity to round prices up. There is no better example than Greece, which although still great value for money, did see a noticeable and immediate increase in the prices being charged once the move to the Euro was made.  Bulgaria has seen a massive increase in prices over the past couple of years and if this is exacerbated once again with joining the Euro zone, the country’s tourism sector that currently contributes some 12.8% to the national GDP, might take something of a hit. The government do not want this figure to slip in any way, shape or form by not reading the room correctly.

April – Lada Cars, Shkemba Chorba and Balkan Holidays “were’” Bulgaria in a nutshell. Whilst we long ago suggested that any title with the world Balkan in was immediately facing an uphill battle, Balkan Holidays seemed to weather out the negative connotations associated with the name and provided thousands, indeed millions of  tourists to the nations over supply of hastily built holiday accommodation. Alas no more, the times apparently caught up with it in much the same manner Thomas Cook disappeared off our radars. It should be pointed out that Balkan Holidays voluntary retreat, unlike Thomas Cook, didn’t leave behind of trail of debt and chaos: –

60 and Out

In years gone by the announcement on 24^th April that Balkan Holiday UK had ceased trading after 60 years of activity would reach more eyes and ears than it probably has. Again, in years gone by, the collapse of a Tour Operator would be noticed not only by the holidaymaking public, the wider travel trade but also the local media as Balkan Holidays historically were a major local influence in the sphere of tourism, yet the announcement seems to have barely caused a ripple, perhaps because the “’failures” of Tour Operators or travel businesses over the years has become something of the norm, regardless of the actual scope of travel activity. As we write this article, the whole story is slightly opaque as the closure seems specific to the companies UK (sales) operations but if it’s the UK today where will it be tomorrow and is this an irreversible trend and does this also impact the domestic operations of the company or may it do so in the future?

What should also be pointed out is that the company is not insolvent; it has ceased trading and money paid to it by holidaymakers will be refunded in full commencing with the closest travel dates first. Equally, all those on current holidays will be unaffected. Balkan Holidays UK were covered by ABTA and ATOL licences which acts as a guarantor for the holidaymakers booked through it.

Just prior to the summer season kicking in, this sort or news is not beneficial to the confidence in the tourism product and it also doesn’t help the image of the country as whilst it’s a fact that any Tour Operator can close its doors, the name Balkan Holidays is synonymous with holidays to Bulgaria.

May – amid the positivity surrounding accountancy numbers and using that old nugget that the devil is in the detail, growth in the local tourism sector is going to be significantly influenced by having enough workers to satisfy they theoretical future demand. Looking at today’s trends, that scenario currently seems to sit somewhere between impossible and unlikely. The only chance the local tourism sector has of attracting workers is to recruit from overseas. This is already happening in small numbers but this has to accelerate rapidly to keep the tourism product economically afloat: –

Numbers Looking Good

Bulgaria’s Travel & Tourism sector looks to be in a good position according to data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC). The sector is forecast to contribute some 16.7 billion Leva to the national economy this year, bringing this figure close to pre covid levels. The leva value equates to some 8% of the total GDP, that figure was 10% in 2019. The tourism sector will also provide 330,000 jobs in 2025, a figure that is forecasted to rise to 386,000 in the next decade. Currently the numbers of people employed in 2025 equates to 9% of the total workforce, itself a figure slightly up from 8.9% pre-covid.

Another key take away is the fact that some 80% of the tourism spend is from overseas visitors, or put into figures, 10.9 billion Leva. This figure in particular will be an interesting one to follow baring in mind the rocketing prices in the country and the potential impact that may have on future visitor numbers; or not as the case may be.

It will also be an interesting watch where the actual numbers forecast to be employed in 2035 will come from? Bulgaria has a shrinking population and like many of its European counterparts, finds a younger population with an inherent dislike of work.

June – our editorial this month highlighted the increasing resentment in certain quarters towards tourists and hence by defacto, to the wealth they bring into a city /country/region (SIC). Cities et al across the world have evolved for one reason or another since Roman times and whilst a city on a river or coast may have evolved as a port, today other cities evolve due to tourism. Expansion and evolution will always come with a cost. The cost of living in central London, Paris, New York is extortionate and beyond most people’s means, hence the word “’commute”” when it comes to working.  It’s pretty stupid though that some people think that by getting rid of tourists, their own personal gain can be achieved i.e., cheaper housing. Question to said mindset; “’ how will you pay for your housing, meals and lifestyle when you have no job and who will fund the schools, hospitals and infrastructure?

Be Careful What You Wish For

As we enter the peak summer season at full steam, the noises coming out of certain people in certain cities regarding their views on tourism are entering the public domain with ever increasing regularity. This may not be because the stories are gathering more momentum themselves, but rather the media likes a good story, regardless of the facts. Added to this is the fact that in a modern-day democracy, it’s not having the most votes that matters, it’s the ones that have the loudest voices who wins and it doesn’t take much for minority rule to become the order of the day. Several cities seem to be at the forefront of the eco-loon movement and whilst there are some valid points being raised, one could argue that it’s not just tourism that creates a shifting sand, but the evolution of economics also plays a significant role.

Venice perhaps was the first city to kick off about the impact of tourism and indeed the city has seen its population decrease by some 70% since the 1950’s to the point whereby now many hospitality establishments et all no longer have staff who speak Italian. Cruise ships were the first target of blame for Venetians but there certainly wasn’t a huge number of cruise ships around in the 1980’s and 90’s and 99.9% of people on cruise ships don’t sleep in the city, they sleep and eat on their ships and their daily spend, whilst minimal in the grand scheme of things, is spent in local shops during the day time. Its what people do with their properties that is the real issue and that’s where AirBnB enters the fray. AirBnB is a great idea and provides (unearned) secondary income to thousands, but unless it is managed properly, the bottom can fall out of the floor and that tends to lead us to the root of the current problem.

Moving from Venice to the Spanish cities of Barcelona and Palma De Mallorca, we can run the numbers in simplistic form to see what AIrBnB contributes to the local economy, but in so doing we can also see what could happen if it is taken away.

Barcelona’s modern era was rejuvenated by the Olympic Games that were held there in 1992 and the city has in no small way also benefitted massively from the success of its football team who, in effect, provide “’free”” marketing to the city. The latest figures (varying numbers can be shown depending on their source but we believe the ones here are substantially correct) show that the city itself attracts 15.6 million tourists per annum, A further 10,5 m visitors’ holiday in the broader geographical region.  Income in the city from tourism alone is 10.32 billion Euro per annum out of a total GDP of just over 107M Euro’s.  The average visitor spends 90 Eu a day in the city. Barcelona has 83, 617 hotel beds and when examine AirBnB accommodation, there are an estimated 12,700 listings, which we will say can accommodate a minimum of 30,000 people at any one time. Or, 26% of visitors are staying in AirBnB accommodation. One further point of note, 317,000 people or 23.3% of the citys inhabitants are employed directly or indirectly by the travel and tourism industry!

Moving to Palma De Mallorca, it is estimated that the city alone attracted 10m visitors in 2024. Whilst the numbers are vague, this also likely includes 1.7m cruise visitors who, in effect, are day trippers. The city itself has 12.000 hotel beds and there are some 1492 AirBnB listings that can accommodate say 4000 people at any one time. So again, AirBnB accounts for roughly 25% of visitor accommodation in the city. Again, it’s also worth noting that Palma De Mallorca as a city derives 1.5 Billion Euro annually from its tourist visitors (17.6 Billion in the island of Mallorca) and 122,000 jobs are created in travel and tourism in the city of Palma which accounts for roughly 20% of the workforce, the retail sector employees the next highest level of 14%.

Much of the negative publicity emitting out of Barcelona and Palma is connected with people not having a place to live in the cities. Whilst this is a valid point, cannot the same statement be made in London or Paris or any other capital or major city where people can no longer afford to live in the centre of it?   Or the same here in Sofia where people can no longer afford the inflated prices in the Doctors Garden or Lozenets area. In most European capital or major cities people regularly commute 10, 20, 30 kms or more to work and this can take an hour, two or even longer to commute each way.  Whilst not condoning this, sadly it’s the evolution of life and economic life. If we take away these 25% of tourist numbers what happens then?

If we take numbers literally, then binning all AirBnB’s in Barcelona will mean reducing tourists by 26% then the positive is that there will be 12,700 new properties for rent for families but the bad news is that the people may not be able to afford them as 50,000 people or so may be made redundant as a consequence of reduced numbers. Which perversely means more empty apartments for people to chose as people move away from the area. Equally, with Palma, if the AirBnB’s are got rid of then we can get rid of 25% of the jobs which means 30,000 people could be put out of work, though there will be 1492 apartments for people to rent. If they have a job that is. Sic.

The key “what if” though will best be seen through the local government or central governments eyes. If Barcelona loses 26% of its visitors and Palma 25% then that logically means the equivalent impact to the financials. Barcelona will lose some 2.5 billion Euros and Palma over 300 m Euro’s. What would that do to the local budget? How would that impact the local infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, transport infrastructure and anything else of a similar vein? Who would be the first ones to scream that they had no work, no future and no hope and who would they blame?

We mentioned earlier that democracy has ceded control to the loud minority. One banner seen recently said tourists out, asylum seekers in. Might it be suggested that a part of the budget raised currently from tourism income in these locations be used to fund a six month stay for these people who support this concept to stay in parts of London or Paris or indeed several other European cities where uncontrolled migration has not worked and where walking the streets at night or attending a Christmas Market is Russian Roulette. For Asylum seekers, some are genuine and need help, but many are not genuine and most are male. Regardless, they all need feeding, housing, schooling for their many children, they need medical facilities, money for food and they probably would like transport providing for free as they won’t be working. The local budget needs to provide all these things and dare we go back to the maths lesson again and point out that the local budget, aside from losing 25% or so from reduced tourism, will need to increase its spend by a significant percentage to fund its new found situation. The balance required will, of course, come from increased taxation which means increased prices for those tourists that still travel but which will dwindle through time anyway as they move on to the next big (cheaper/safer/authentic) alternative. People should remember that La La Land is a film and it does not exist in reality

The success of cities or countries created through travel and tourism should not be considered as a pariah by those that, perhaps without realising, benefit greatly from it. Don’t bite off the hand that feeds you.

July/August – for decades the drive to Greece down the main road artery to Kulata was forbidden! Then when it was allowed, it became a slog, then the motorway arrived – almost – and travel became easier. That is, except for the 30+ kms of road that makes up the Kresna Gorge where the motorway ceased. There is no right nor wrong as to why a consensus couldn’t be reached re how this stretch of the motorway couldn’t be built, but like in Bansko, the court system can be used to good effect as a delaying tactic. Alas, the dispute is settled more or less and the motorway can be finished. Except, that is, there is still no clear design plan and any budget set previously will have been blown out of the water. Thank goodness for Santa Claus aka the European Union who might best be advised to keep a close control of the purse strings!

Light at the End of the Tunnel

The never-ending saga that surrounded the finishing of the strip of road that would complete the E79 highway connection into Greece might finally be entering the final stages. The E79 is the 1300km long highway that starts in Hungary and finishes at Thessaloniki and incudes 400 km in Bulgaria, of which roughly 144 km of highway runs between Sofia and the Greek border. 30 kms of the road runs through the Kresna Gorge and this forms part of the E79 masterplan.  This 30+ km stretch of road was always going to swallow up the largest slice of the (EU) funds that are designated towards the highway locally and so it has proved, bearing in mind that the road was due to be finished for the Olympics. The 2004 Athens Olympics that is.

Numerous plans were proposed for this Kresna Gorge stretch with most plans allowing for some or part of the highway to remain in the gorge itself, much to the chagrin of environmentalists and indeed anyone with logic. However, it has now been agreed (apparently) that both directions of the highway will be constructed outside the gorge, a win for the environmentalists and probably also a win for the construction companies whose budget will now be even larger.

Just where and how the new highway will be constructed has not even started to be thought out yet and if the tender and approval process are factored in, this alone could take several years and that is before the real work actually starts. Don’t expect anything for the next five years we would suggest.

September – a few years ago the bar room talk and tips from amateurs on how to make money was all centred around Crypto. Not that anyone really understood it but that doesn’t matter, today the talk has moved onto AI, which, we are led to believe will be the saviour (or end) of the world. It may take all our jobs, but that’s irrelevant to shareholder dividends: until they realise people have no money to buy anything. Anyhow we digress. AI may indeed have a future but believe it entirely at your own peril. Does Finland border the Arctic Sea” Yes according to AI,I so who are we to argue. More recent attention likens the AI boom to that of the “.com bubble” which also burst. The opportunists who have been raising funds off the back of “’AI development’” may soon have their own bubbles burst. Meanwhile, aside of Finland not bordering the Artic Sea, AI also has some work to do with its knowledge of travel:-

Thanks but no Thanks

Airlines regionalising their Help (!) desks/call centres and dispensing with local set ups is now the standard mode of operation. The quality of help/service one gets from such centres can vary from being OK to appalling. Indeed, many airline managers off the record will admit that their personal   biggest issue is their own call centres!  So, congratulations must go to the Lufthansa passenger who, flying from Lisbon – Frankfurt – Finland was advised that due to their flight time being changed by one hours and twenty minutes on the Frankfurt to Finland flight, she had been re-routed via New York! In other words; Lisbon – New York – Frankfurt – Finland.

The passenger politely pointed out she would keep the retimed Frankfurt – Finland flight even though it was amended by 1 hr 20 mins as the flight from Lisbon arrived in Frankfurt the night before and they were sleeping in Frankfurt regardless – something that was obvious on the original itinerary and the time change had zero impact.

The word common sense springs to mind but also, is there something else at play here: AI perhaps? No human can surely be so stupid to suggest the proposed change, not least because the person would require a USA ESTA (visa) to travel to the USA in the first place. Something that any travel professional (human) would know and would point out before suggesting such a move. Would AI?

October – the tail is wagging the dog might not be an inappropriate expression to our article in October regarding Ryanair’s approach to government or local authority stupidity. Stupid because in trying to gain a few Euro’s for their own budgets, they risk losing millions and in so doing jeopardise their own local commercial landscape. Running a country is like running a business, except those politicians making ‘”business’” decisions have no business experience:-

Tax and Die

We have long advocated the point that politicians are the very last people who should manage a country’s economy. Running a country’s economy is the same as running a business and politicians are largely incapable of the latter having no such experience themselves of life in the real fast lane. Thus, thinking that you can raise taxes by X to generate extra income is not quite so straightforward and Ryanair have made that point in three major Eu countries: France, Spain and now Germany.

In France, the hard-up government have bizarrely announced increased taxes from 2.63 Euro to 7.40 Euro per airline passenger; a move that will result in less tourists and less tax revenue collected especially as Ryanair responded by closing its bases at Brive, Bergerac and Strasbourg and pulled 750,000 seats out of the market. The airline has also pulled 1.2 million seats out of the Spanish market due to Spanish Airports plans to hike landing fees and has now done the same in Germany where the government has reneged on promises made to reduce passenger levies to stimulate economic growth. 24 routes and 800,000 seats have been removed from the German market.

The net result of all this is that unless other airlines step into the breach, which is unlikely not least because there is a general shortage of actual planes across Europe, less people will travel, less money will be spent and thus less taxes will be collected. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to work that out.

Equally, its another conversation as to whether Ryanair should take the high and mighty stance and for sure, if they thought that such actions would impact them financially; they wouldn’t take such steps, they probably figure out that the planes and crews from these markets can be moved elsewhere to other Ryanair bases where operations can then be ramped and also be more profitable.

Many Countries these days tend to run a deficit (loss) Ryanair don’t.

November – an article about new hotels being built across Europe will hardly set the pulse rate racing. As in many articles, it’s not what you read, but what that means. The Green lobby will try shame you for leaving your close environs and initiate a death sentence if you dare jump on a plane and stay in a hotel as opposed to staying in a tent.  If however you are of a more sane disposition then you will notice that more planes are being built than ever before and more people are travelling (flying) than ever before. That also means more accommodation than ever is required. Significant investments in metal and concrete (planes and hotels) are not made lightly and with the numbers associated with these sectors, its clear traffic is only heading on one direction; if you pardon the pun. What is also interesting is that it’s the top end where the hotel focus is. Itself possibly an indication of overall greater wealth amongst travellers:- 

Upscale Leads The Way

The Hotel boom continues unabated across Europe with some 300 hotels contributing 37,500 rooms coming on stream. During the first 9 months of this year, 195 new hotels appeared together with 23,500 rooms. The last quarter of this year is expected to see a further 105 hotels opening their doors across Europe offering 14,000 rooms. By comparison in 2024, 289 hotels opened together with 39,000 rooms.

Looking ahead to 2026, 340 new hotels are expected with another 350 due in 2027 which combined will provide 95,000 new rooms.

The UK is leading the way with new openings at 277, of which 76 are in London. They are followed by Germany with 152 and Turkey with 140.

Just out of interest, in the numbers mentioned above, the driver is the “upscale” sector with 357 planned openings followed by “upper upscale” properties with 287. Who says people are tightening their financial belts?

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