Editorial

The former US Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld came up with a whole new discussion topic in February 2012 when he talked about the difference between known knowns; known unknowns and unknown unknowns. The statement became folklore with even a documentary film spurning from it. If we tried to bracket the world over the past decade or so it’s probably moved from the known knowns ie. We could second guess what would happen in the near future, to the known unknown i.e. A dictator evolves to the point where he wants to create a legacy in Europe; to finally the unknown unknown where two world leaders seem to be doing all they can to upset the world applecart. Upsetting the applecart is fine but the world and what makes it tick i.e. The financial markets, don’t generally like surprises. Volatility impacts business and business is what makes the world go around.

This is not meant to be a political piece in any way and just to balance things out, many sane and logical people throughout the western world have, for some time now, seen logic and common sense thrown out of the window as a woke like mentality overrules logical thinking and the democratic voice of the majority is, like the voices when communism swept to power in the last century, quietly suppressed. Back to travel.

One of the first targets of the new US President was the world of DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion). As a note, no-one has probably taken note, unless you are in the C Suite at a major international company, of what the EU plans are for this in the very near future. Like good bureaucrats the voice of business has probably not been consulted because the impact and onerous commitments companies of all sized throughout Europe are going to have to make when it comes to DEI border on absurdity. The plans are at best optimistic and at worst, impossible to implement across Europe, but since when did the EU pen pushers have any sense of reality? Back to the USA and clearly, the new President didn’t want his country to follow suit and as soon as the chance arose, the axe was wielded. The best man *(sorry ‘person”’) for the job then?

In sport, can you imagine Real Madrid, Miami Heat or the San Francisco 49 ers being told that ‘’due to DEI rules, you must now play people of at least 5 religions, 4 skin colours and throw in the transgender requirement plus and at least one person with ginger hair wearing spectacles must be included ( note: it cannot be a he so it’s a ‘’person”). This is pure humour but sport is also a business and businesses are there to make money for its owners (despite the romantic notion of sport). Real Madrid, Miami Heat and the 49 ers will choose the best players regardless of skin colour, religion, political bias and origin: they are there to win. Business is the same. Just as many organisations were like the ‘” nodding dogs” you see on the back parcel shelf of a car, their nod to DEI was done to ensure a quiet life and they had to get on with things; funnily enough, as soon as the changing of the guard took place in the USA, many of these same organisations were quick out of the blocks to say that DEI had overreached its intended goals and they would now do their ‘own thing’ when it comes to recruiting and employing staff i.e. they would recruit the best man/woman for the job regardless of colour, religion or anything else. Amongst these are Delta and United Airlines. Meanwhile the Marriott Hotels CEO pointed out that “’there is no way the chain can be successful in over 100 countries without having hundreds of cultures and we are seen as an attractive employer for people regardless of their skin colour, origin, identity, height or religion or anything!”’ In short, they don’t need governments, NGO’s and people who have never worked in business meddling in their affairs. He has a very valid point.

On the subject of hotels, at the same time the hiatus surrounding DEI was kicking off, the USA hospitality industry was spooked by the thought that some of the 137,000 “less than legal employees in hotels may disappear. This is the figure estimated as being undocumented workers in the hospitality industry. It is already 200.000 staff down on pre-covid levels but if the message appears to be” ‘we don’t want you’, regardless of where it is coming from, then the industries that rely on the ‘un-documented” may be in panic mood; hotels et al. The question then becomes who will the man/woman on the street blame when there is no fruit in the supermarkets and when the service he/she gets in a hotel or restaurant is non-existent?

On this latter point of staffing, its not as if there is a shortage of manpower around, indeed there is plenty in theory but in today’s world it’s the tail that wags the dog with employees telling employers when and where they will work: if at all. In the UK, the population is circa 68 million of which roughly 50% are of working age – 34 million. At the end of 2024, there was 987,000 young people between the ages of 16 – 24 not working, not in education and not in training. In many countries its these young people who work full or part-time in hotels, bars and restaurants and thus keep the Tourism GDP ticking over. So, what the hell are they doing now? That’s almost 1 million people or 13.4% of the theoretical working population. Strangely enough they usually seem to have money!  If young people are our future than the future looks grim unless somehow such people can be somehow returned to the workforce and into proper jobs i.e. not Social Media Content Creators.

Mark Thomas

Sofia Has New Airport

On the Up

Visitor arrivals to Bulgaria by non-Bulgarians totalled 5,793, 225 in 2024, an increase of 8.8% on the previous year. Of this total, some 3, 003, 643 were from other European Union Countries with the largest number coming from Romania with 1, 078,223 visitors.

The second largest source market in total was Ukraine with 645, 457 visitors followed by Turkey with 559, 504 and by Greece with 394, 338. Poland, Germany and the UK all contributed over 300,000 visitors whilst a further 147, 219 came Israel and 57, 320 from the USA.

The take away from this is that despite the loss of the Russian market, the garden looks rosy.

Drone Appearance

The local media found a new story this month when a drone was flown over Sofia Airport, bringing mild chaos to proceedings whilst the airport authorities ran around like headless chickens trying to find out who was behind it: something they failed to achieve (nor locate the drone).

Other airports have, over the years encountered similar issues with the debate often being surrounding the question of was it a hostile state or others that were testing the reactions of airports? No-one ever seems to be apprehended for the incursions which itself implies those operating the drones are not amateurs. The fashion of flying drones over airports seems to have largely disappeared in recent times as apart from testing the authorities’ reactions, Google Earth can map out the infrastructure of any airport around the world (more or less).

It’s absolutely certain that most main airports now have discreet security technology surrounding them and that probably also now includes anti drone technology. As we see in the Ukraine, drones are now an effective weapon and such weapons could easily wreak havoc at an airport if the proper security is not in place. Perhaps part of the initial test?

Maybe now Sofia is being mapped out to test its security resilience, or lack of it. On the other hand, it may just be an enthusiastic amateur with the brain of an idiot who was flying the “’toy”. Just for the record, there is a company close to Sofia that produces some of the most sophisticated anti drone technology there is, so the Sofia Airport authorities don’t need to look very far for a solution. A case of having to be reactive rather than being proactive perhaps.

Rail Back On

The direct Eurostar service between Amsterdam and London is back in operation for the first time since June last year. Whilst Amsterdam’s “Centraal” Station was being re-furbished, trains had to stop and passengers disembark in Brussels for passport and security controls. The service operates three times per day and twice on Saturdays. Until late March the trains will carry 400 passengers which will increase to 600 in April and 650 by September.

Cruise The Middle East

If you fancy a last-minute dash to the sun but don’t know where and you fancy something different, then until mid-February, some excellent low-priced cruises are available between Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

This part of the world is not associated with cruising but at this time of the year, for accessibility and warmth, it’s probably as close and as easy as it gets; the fares are not bad too!

An all-inclusive for 4 nights is on offer from 299 Euro per person and even the swankiest suites are only 1109 per person; remember this includes not just the accommodation but also on-board dining as well as drinks.

The cruise line is Celestyal Cruises and whilst air fares to and from Dubai or Abu Dhabi are not included, there are ample options direct from Sofia.

Contact:

hotels @jamadvice.eu or call 02 9433011

Bags of Sentiment

There are many good barometers to gauge the sentiment towards travel and for the hotel sector, one of their key indicators to gauge the economic mood is the demand for Business Travel from large companies or organisations. 2024 seems to have been a very positive one for most hotel chains with business travel revenue driving the sentiment.

The Hyatt Group has just announced its own figures for last year with the 12% annual growth in business travel showing on the bottom line. Its average rate per room per night globally increased to 203.70 USD per night with occupancy up to 69,9% Itself a 2% increase. This facilitated a total revenue of 6.65 billion USD for the year with Net Income reaching 1.3 billion USD.

The Hilton Hotel Group also cited strong demand for Business Travel as it announced an annual revenue of 11.2 billion USD, up from 10.2 billion the previous year, whilst net profit increased from 1.15 to 1.5 billion USD last year.

Rival Marriott International also mentioned that Business Travel was now at pre covid levels and made up 33% of the company’s global room nights. Its average room cost per night globally reached 183.58 USD although in Europe it rose to 219.39 USD per night with 70.3% occupancy. Globally, occupancy was 69.8%.

Meanwhile the French based Accor group were also bullish about the state of travel as their annual revenue increased 11% to 5.6 billion Euros, with the biggest growth coming at the top end of their brands in Lifestyle and Luxury. Their global average room rate was 113 Euro with occupancy at 66.7%. Accor are very strong in the lower categories of hotels in the budget class; a fact that doesn’t mean they make less profit as  their EDITDA was 1.1 Billion Euros for the year!

What the above financials show is that the demand for travel shows no sign of waning and that there is the realisation that in business, you have to travel and meet people to sustain commerce; a theory sometimes lost on some.

Whilst on the theme of hotels, noting the opening of a new hotel will not attract much attention, but the re-opening of Berlins Radisson Collection Hotel after a two-year closure is worth a mention. The reason is best understood as to why it closed in the first place: an explosion in the giant fish tank in the hotel’s atrium lobby in December 2022. It was never made clear what happened to the fish however.

Bagless Security

The concept of home collection of your bags by an airline is not new. The idea being that the airline – or their subcontractors -collect your bags to save you the hassle of carrying them to the airport and managing the baggage check in process yourself. Whilst the idea has been around for a while, the process seems never to have gained mass momentum.

Lufthansa are the latest to offer this option for passengers living in a wider Frankfurt and neighbouring towns/city area. The prices range from between 25 – 35 Euros for two bags; itself not a bad (initial?) deal.

How many times have you heard that nugget “Safety and Security of our passengers is our prime concern” or whilst at check in “’have you ever left your bags alone?”’. So, what happened to the security aspect in all this as such operations are clearly open to abuse. One assumes that security is only relevant when the necessity to use the excuse is required for other means.

Then There Were Two

The connection between Barcelona and Madrid has always been a hostile one in football but it remains arguably Europe’s most connected city when it comes to travel. Just how people travel is an ongoing evolution. The high-speed rail link between the two cities opened in 2008, cutting the journey time from 7 hours to 2 hrs 30mins and is now used by four different rail operators. The air link has recently been served by three airlines, Iberia, Air Europa and Vueling but the latest news is that after 20 years on the route, Vueling is to withdraw to focus on other more profitable routes.

This story might be a case of rail slowly but surely eating into aviation and it could also be a perfect example of how bigger fish eat the smaller ones; or if they don’t eat them, they force them out of the water.

Local Numbers in the Air

If you are a numbers geek then you may -or you may not – be curious to know the state of play in the world of aviation in and out of Bulgaria. To put it mildly: it’s on the up!

The total spent locally with IATA airlines (i.e. the likes of Lufthansa, Turkish, BA etc) increased in 2024 by 6.07% to 334,960.000 USD (Three Hundred and Thirty-four million USD). However, the number of “coupons” only increased by 0.36% to 510,818. That equates to 655 USD per ticket. This is the third largest percentage increase in our part of the world behind Poland and Slovenia.

However, the devil is in the detail and what these figures don’t include is the numbers associated with Ryanair, Wizz and EasyJet i.e., the Low-Cost Airlines who in terms of footfall make up roughly 50% of all passengers.

The average price on Low-Cost Airlines is of course lower than on traditional airlines for various reasons and just for the record, the issue being that such airlines are not so forthcoming with their data. Just for the record for Jamadvice/BCD Bulgaria in 2024, the average price per ticket issued with an IATA airline was 666 Euro whilst for Low-Cost Airlines it was 249 Euros.

Lufthansa Goes Baltic

The expansion of European aviation powerhouse Lufthansa continues unabated. Following on from the acquisition of a chunk of the new Italian national carrier ITA, Lufthansa has agreed to take a 10% stake in Air Baltic with a 14m Euro investment. The deal provides the rapidly developing Air Baltic with additional funding to support those growth plans.

The two airlines already have a close relationship and an extension to that relationship will see Air Baltic extend their wet lease agreement for 21 AirBaltic A220 aircraft deployed to various Lufthansa group hubs for a further three years during the summer season and 5 supplied during the winter season.

That’s a variant of outsourcing in corporate terms.

How to gain Social Acceptance

In a game of cards, the joker is a card that in effect “’trumps all others”. The expression “to play a joker’” translates to “’any method or trick to get the better of another”. In life today there are many jokers that can be played and two of them are the words “’security and sustainability””.

Take the stupidity at airports, where staff, when challenged retort with “it’s for security” when they have no idea what they are doing nor why they are doing it. Sustainability is slightly different as its very vague but to challenge it means challenging the voice of the noisy minority, plus at the end of the day if we 1) plant a tree, 2) Recycle Cornflakes packets, 3) drive an electric car, we are doing out bit for planet earth: supposedly, except we aren’t but that’s not the point. Sustainability is one of those words that grates on the nerve of the majority of people and follows equally faddish expressions that started years ago with the “Community Centre”, went through the vocation of “Life Coach”” and now finds itself in locked in “’sustainability.  Along the way, the “’Life Coach” was by passed, it was after all a name for someone out of work that needed to convince people to pay money to him/her (that), a vocation that prior to this era used to belong to the word “consultant”.

We digress, another week and another city tax being introduced and this time its Edinburgh in Scotland who, from next year will introduce a 5% levy on accommodation of all types up to a maximum of five nights. How they manage the AirBnb type short term rentals is another question. The justification for the move is of course “to pay for sustainability projects!”

Just as everyone who lived under communism knew it didn’t work but dare not say anything, a tax collected under the pretence of sustainability sits in the same bracket. For several years now, the concept of City Tax’s paid by tourists has gathered momentum with cities like Amsterdam, Venice, Barcelona and Rome already imposing such taxes. It’s a quickfire simple (ish) way to gather taxes for either the local, regional or central coffers and it doesn’t alienate the locals (too much) unless tourists are driven away and then it’s a lose lose scenario. The notion that all these funds gathered will be used for “sustainability” projects sits alongside Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs. Just like the EU, the accountancy function is never audited or at least scrutinised closely enough to understand what, if any, sustainability projects are being funded.  Still, the extra taxes will sustain the life styles of those collecting it and when the tourists have been driven away by incessant taxation, the environmentalists will be the only ones happy; though they won’t be footing the bill to sustain local society.

If you’d like to subscribe your friends or colleagues and for all your travel requirements, reservations or for more information about any of the items mentioned in the newsletter, please contact us:

Tel:+ 359 (2) 943 3011;
Fax:+ 359 (2) 946 1261;
e-mail:mark @jamadvice.eu