Editorial

The Business of Travel

At this time of year, the world of travel and hospitality and their respective journals are awash with forecasts of what the year ahead will look like. Rarely mentioning of course, what they had predicted prior for the year just gone as invariably they are wide of the mark. Sustainability was the buzz word at the start of 2025 within the Business Travel sphere and whilst acknowledging that many people earn a living out of it, its relevance to the real world was quickly downgraded as other more pressing needs came to the fore. For the year ahead, within the same Business Travel sector, the noise is indicating that geopolitical tensions will continue to cause disruption to the ‘’normal’ world. It’s not just companies and organisations who are starting to feel ill prepared to face the increased volatility, countries and economic blocks are scratching their own heads at what they see and what they face; from friends as well as enemies. The fear of significant trade disruptions followed closely by Cyber-crime, often state orchestrated, is now a real fear as opposed to a distant one.

To the daily nitty gritty of how prices and fares are likely to be impacted, the average air ticket price is forecasted to rise by a modest 0.4% or to 708 USD (for some reason the numbers in travel are always cited in US dollars); in Euro’s that’s 605. The average global hotel rate is expected to climb 1.8% to 166 USD.

The good news is that the spend in Business Travel. is expected to reach 1.69 trillion USD in 2026, up from 1.57 trillion USD in 2025. Here in Europe, the slice of the business travel cake is expected to be 448 billion USD up 8.2% from 2025 and this figure is expected to continue to increase to 476,5 billion USD in 2027.

Of course, cynics could argue that less people actually travel for business but they are paying more, a fact not entirely true as supported by the increased number of air passengers, a fact also borne out by record numbers of travellers at main hub airports. Hotels are also proudly showing record numbers and together with the huge pipeline of new hotels coming to the fray, the world of travel continues to march forward and let’s not forget, based on now slightly dated figures, contributes 10% of the worlds GDP and one in ten jobs globally. The realisation is dawning that those who try shame the people who travel, are fast becoming social pariahs themselves.

The Greta Effect

If there was a Nobel Prize for Saving the Planet through sustainability then the US President, Donald Trump would surely be a front runner. Over the past year, the man who famously committed to “’drill, baby, drill” (oil) has done more to impact travel than even Greta could ever hope to achieve. If you are reading this and are already lost, then read on.

The US Governments recent 43 day shutdown cost an estimated 6.1 Billion USD in total economic losses across travel and related sectors. There were some 88,000 fewer domestic trips per day in the USA than normal and all this at a time when global figures increased by 5.3%. The figure was arrived at taking numerous variables into account but also basing the figures on hard facts such as a 21% reduction in the visits by Canadians and perhaps not surprisingly, a 20% decrease in Danish visitors. Indeed, the numbers of overseas visitors to the USA dropped dramatically the longer 2025 progressed. A fact that is more than likely to prevail for some time given the current attempt at political isolation in the USA.

So global warming due to travel has been stopped in its tracks thanks to the US President. Maybe the Norwegian Government should acknowledge this fact and make a special high-profile award.

If only the Norwegian Government actually made awards! Sic.

Joining the Club

The European Union’s Entry/Exit System has now been implemented at all of Bulgaria’s land borders as of January 6^th. The EES records the data of citizens on non-EU countries travelling for a short stay (up to 90 days in any 180 day period) when crossing the external borders of EU member states. Border checks on persons covered by the system include the collection of biographical information and the taking of biometric data (photograph and fingerprints).

All EU member states have until April to implement the system with countries adopting a staggered approach in its adoption. After full adoption, the EITAS visa scheme will then be put into operation.

The Shrinking State

A recent article titled “’Countries with the biggest population declines” made interesting, indeed” frightening’” reading: the top 5 countries were all from Eastern Europe and Bulgaria was top of the pile. The article forecasted the decline in population between 2020 and 2050, the list and rationale was listed as:

1. Bulgaria – forecast decline 22.5%, attributed to high death rate and low birth rate.
2. Lithuania – 22.1%, attributed to economic factors driven by youth exodus and a birth rate of 1.6% added to an ageing population.
3. Latvia – 21.6% – attributed to the exodus that ensued when it joined the EU.
4. Ukraine – 19.5%, attributed mainly due to the invasion by Russia.
5. Serbia – 18.9%, attributed almost totally to economic uncertainties.

For Bulgaria, it would also be reasonable to suggest that economic factors have paid a huge part in the population decline as literally millions have gone to work in countries such as Germany, Spain and the UK. What the travel and hospitality industry does to manage the forecast that it will need some 50,000 more employees in the next decade in the sector, only time will tell; unless by that time its priced itself out of the market. Sic.

The economic development and indeed prosperity of the country is going to be seriously challenged, if it is not already, by a declining population and hence a declining workforce.

In all, 61 countries worldwide are expected to see a population decrease.

Heathrow Tops Again

London Heathrow has retained its place as Europe’s busiest airport in 2025 with 52.1 million departing seats. It finished just ahead of Istanbul which had 51.5 million. Paris CDG was Europe’s third busiest with 43.2 million departing passengers followed by Amsterdam and Frankfurt at 41.3 and 40.7 million.

From a global perspective Heathrow and Istanbul came in 4^th and 5^th in the rankings with Atlanta holding top spot again with 63.1 million passengers followed by Dubai with 62.4 and a long way behind in 3^rd came Tokyo Haneda with 55.4.

A couple of takeaways with these figures is that the top 10 busiest airports were all either at or above 2019 levels, thus the attempted attempts to stop people flying is not working. Also, bucking the trend somewhat and going against the trend are the main German and Lufthansa hubs of Frankfurt and Munich which are still 10% and 12% lower than their operational levels of 2019.This could be down to several factors such as it reflecting the German economic sentiment, or maybe passengers in Germany are using some of the many regional airports and utilsing Low Cost Airlines who largely ignore the main Frankfurt and Munich Airports.

Meet in London

Despite its perception, London has maintained its position as the best Meetings and Events location for the EMEA region. This was according to research by Amex who assessed destinations based on; the ease of travel and transportation of attendees, cost effectiveness for organisers and participants, physical safety and security, recent public investments and local attractions, the ability to deliver a robust attendee experience and sustainability attributes.

Madrid and Barcelona ranked second and third with Amsterdam in fourth, replacing Paris which slipped to fifth.

Las Vegas is set to surpass Chicago as North America’s leading city for hosting events with New York and Orlando following behind the former two in third and fourth with Dallas coming in fifth.

In Asia, Singapore came out tops followed by Bangkok, Sydney, Tokyo and Bali.

Nomadic Attraction

Bulgaria has approved a procedure for the granting of a ‘digital nomad” residence permit which will allow residence in the country without the need of support from a local employer. This permit aims to generate economic benefits for the country with the provision of high-speed internet and solid infrastructure for work for those engaged in innovation, high technology and the creative industries (quote).

It may also help reduce the projected impact of a rapidly declining population; see article “’The Shrinking State”.

The Changing World

The latest disruptor to the world of travel sees the USA planning changes for entry to the country for travellers from ‘friendly’ nations who usually obtain entry visas via the ESTA scheme. In almost Orwellian style, applicants are to be asked to provide five years of social media identifiers which would allow the USA authorities to access five years of social media posts.

The social media requirement also goes with other expanded requirements aimed at stopping those with any anti-American sentiment and this includes providing five years of prior telephone numbers, addresses of contacts, IP addresses and expanded information about immediate family members such as dates and places of birth, places of residence and telephone numbers going back ten years.

These actions are designed to increase the vetting of visitors to the USA to protect it from “foreign terrorists’ and other national and public security threats. Not that America has a major track record of terrorist incidents aside of 9/11 let alone of catching terrorists on its soil.

Putting the above into the melting pot of how these moves may impact the US travel and hospitality sector will make many involved in this sector quiver. The visitor numbers to the USA are already down; correction, the number of legal visitors to the USA is already down, the total number of undocumented visitors may not be! The various travel bodies in the USA had (past tense) predicted an upward trajectory of visitors due to a number of global events scheduled to take place in the next 36 months including the Football World Cup and the Olympics. The same bodies are now commenting that (quote) “the US risks further decreasing international inbound visits based on potential increases in visa fees, extended wait times for visa applications and renewals and the negative sentiment towards the USA in key markets”. At least they are able to read the room.

More culturally nuanced countries such as Ireland, the Netherlands, Denmark, UK, Germany, Finland and Canada have already issued travel warnings about travel to the USA, something usually only seen with countries considered hostile or dangerous. Significant changes in information required to travel into the USA, especially information that could be seen as an invasion of free speech, is unlikely to stimulate tourism or business travel let alone positive sentiment.

For the Football and Olympic organisers, putting in a Plan B with regards to where these events could also be hosted might be a worthwhile exercise.

Shifting Sands

It’s only a few decades ago that Dubai was a little more than an outpost located somewhere in the desert of the Middle East, together with a population less than Cyprus; indeed, less than Plovdiv. Time races by though and with that comes change and there is probably nowhere on Earth that has evolved in such a short time frame as Dubai. If Dubai is the benchmark which others aspire to, then  there is probably no other country more capable than following in the footsteps of Dubai and thereby taking this region of the world to a new level than Saudi Arabia.

The expression “build it and they will come” is most certainly apt for the Saudi’s, that, despite the fact that its own evolution has really only just started, but unlike other projects and places, the Saudi’s will most certainly deliver on their plans. Like Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar, the Saudi’s want to build projects that well help them pivot away from oil and the two most significant projects to kick start this (aside of the football world cup in 2034) are the futuristic city NEOM and the entertainment and sports hub Qiddiya, both of which form part of the vision 2030 project.

To help make this vision possible, the Kingdom is launching three new airlines to service the giga project destinations and these are in addition to the emergence of Riyadh Air, the nation’s second flag carrier which is already gathering momentum at a rapid rate of knots and looks like it will compete with Emirates, Etihad and Qatar as a major hub and spoke global carrier. The original national airline, Saudia will gradually shift its focus onto flights from Jeddah and religious tourism combined, the various new airlines already have 460 aircraft on order and that does not include planes already in operation.

The balance of power in the field of R&R might be about to change abruptly.

The Local Landscape

A point we have made countless time before is that people are travelling more and more and that desire has not waned over the past few years. That said, the annual IATA figures for Bulgaria paint a slightly contradictory story on first glance but the story behind the figures is not the whole story perhaps.

IATA’s figures take into account the sales etc on so called ‘’traditional” airlines such as the Lufthansa Group, Turkish and even Bulgaria Air. The data from Low-Cost Airlines such as Ryanair, Wizz and Easyjet are not included and they will certainly change the picture once their numbers appear.

For the local market, 2025 saw a modest Bulgarian Leva increase in sales on IATA airlines of 0.97% to 338.20m. However, in true accountancy terms, this percentage increase is 5.49% (to 195.39m USD) if a conversion to USD is used, as is the global measure! So, take your pick which you choose to believe. What is perhaps more interesting is that the number of flight coupons issued locally fell by 4.79% to 486,326: they of course are not subject to any currency fluctuation.

So, whilst Europe may have blossomed in travel statistics of all sorts, the first impression is that locally we are behind the curve. However, just to re-iterate, that when the influence of flights by Wizz and Ryanair locally are factored into the equation, the story line will differ massively.

Whilst full and final figures are not yet to hand, Low-Cost airlines are forecast to account for between 5.5 – 6.0m passengers locally in 2025, or between 60-70% of all traffic! In 2024, that figure was between 4.7 – 5.5 million. So the takeaway from this is that the likes of Wizz and Ryanair play a pivotal role in the activities of Sofia Airport and provide the backbone of seats for the growing number of people who wish to travel by plane. They also screw the data that is viewed at first hand!

One final note of curiosity, as the country adopts the Euro and we are told that the vast majority of daily commercial transactions are undertaken these days by card payment, the use of cash as opposed to payment by card for booking airline tickets has increased locally from 86.66% to 87.45% over the past year. Just how this can be is slightly baffling when one considers that the practice of payment by card is obligatory for Low-Cost Airlines and thus one would think the habit has similarly passed onto buying tickets with Lufthansa, Turkish and Bulgaria Air et al: obviously not and we still must have a cash focussed society.

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