Editorial

Be Careful What You Wish For

As we enter the peak summer season at full steam, the noises coming out of certain people in certain cities regarding their views on tourism are entering the public domain with ever increasing regularity. This may not be because the stories are gathering more momentum themselves, but rather the media likes a good story, regardless of the facts. Added to this is the fact that in a modern-day democracy, it’s not having the most votes that matters, it’s the ones that have the loudest voices who wins and it doesn’t take much for minority rule to become the order of the day. Several cities seem to be at the forefront of the eco-loon movement and whilst there are some valid points being raised, one could argue that it’s not just tourism that creates a shifting sand, but the evolution of economics also plays a significant role.

Venice perhaps was the first city to kick off about the impact of tourism and indeed the city has seen its population decrease by some 70% since the 1950’s to the point whereby now many hospitality establishments et all no longer have staff who speak Italian. Cruise ships were the first target of blame for Venetians but there certainly wasn’t a huge number of cruise ships around in the 1980’s and 90’s and 99.9% of people on cruise ships don’t sleep in the city, they sleep and eat on their ships and their daily spend, whilst minimal in the grand scheme of things, is spent in local shops during the day time. Its what people do with their properties that is the real issue and that’s where AirBnB enters the fray. AirBnB is a great idea and provides (unearned) secondary income to thousands, but unless it is managed properly, the bottom can fall out of the floor and that tends to lead us to the root of the current problem.

Moving from Venice to the Spanish cities of Barcelona and Palma De Mallorca, we can run the numbers in simplistic form to see what AIrBnB contributes to the local economy, but in so doing we can also see what could happen if it is taken away.

Barcelona’s modern era was rejuvenated by the Olympic Games that were held there in 1992 and the city has in no small way also benefitted massively from the success of its football team who, in effect, provide “’free”” marketing to the city. The latest figures (varying numbers can be shown depending on their source but we believe the ones here are substantially correct) show that the city itself attracts 15.6 million tourists per annum, A further 10,5 m visitors’ holiday in the broader geographical region.  Income in the city from tourism alone is 10.32 billion Euro per annum out of a total GDP of just over 107M Euro’s.  The average visitor spends 90 Eu a day in the city. Barcelona has 83, 617 hotel beds and when examine AirBnB accommodation, there are an estimated 12,700 listings, which we will say can accommodate a minimum of 30,000 people at any one time. Or, 26% of visitors are staying in AirBnB accommodation. One further point of note, 317,000 people or 23.3% of the citys inhabitants are employed directly or indirectly by the travel and tourism industry!

Moving to Palma De Mallorca, it is estimated that the city alone attracted 10m visitors in 2024. Whilst the numbers are vague, this also likely includes 1.7m cruise visitors who, in effect, are day trippers. The city itself has 12.000 hotel beds and there are some 1492 AirBnB listings that can accommodate say 4000 people at any one time. So again, AirBnB accounts for roughly 25% of visitor accommodation in the city. Again, its also worth noting that Palma De Mallorca as a city derives 1.5 Billion Euro annually from its tourist visitors (17.6 Billion in the island of Mallorca) and 122,000 jobs are created in travel and tourism in the city of Palma which accounts for roughly 20% of the workforce, the retail sector employees the next highest level of 14%.

Much of the negative publicity emitting out of Barcelona and Palma is connected with people not having a place to live in the cities. Whilst this is a valid point, cannot the same statement be made in London or Paris or any other capital or major city where people can no longer afford to live in the centre of it?   Or the same here in Sofia where people can no longer afford the inflated prices in the Doctors Garden or Lozenets area. In most European capital or major cities people regularly commute 10, 20, 30 kms or more to work and this can take an hour, two or even longer to commute each way.  Whilst not condoning this, sadly it’s the evolution of life and economic life. If we take away these 25% of tourist numbers what happens then?

If we take numbers literally, then binning all Air BnB’s in Barcelona will mean reducing tourists by 26% then the positive is that there will be 12,700 new properties for rent for families but the bad news is that the people may not be able to afford them as 50,000 people or so may be made redundant as a consequence of reduced numbers. Which perversely means more empty apartments for people to chose as people move away from the area. Equally, with Palma, if the AirBnB’s are got rid of then we can get rid of 25% of the jobs which means 30,000 people could be put out of work, though there will be 1492 apartments for people to rent. If they have a job that is. Sic.

The key “what if” though will best be seen through the local government or central governments eyes. If Barcelona loses 26% of its visitors and Palma 25% then that logically means the equivalent impact to the financials. Barcelona will lose some 2.5 billion Euros and Palma over 300 m Euro’s. What would that do to the local budget? How would that impact the local infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, transport infrastructure and anything else of a similar vein? Who would be the first ones to scream that they had no work, no future and no hope and who would they blame?

We mentioned earlier that democracy has ceded control to the loud minority. One banner seen recently said tourists out, asylum seekers in. Might it be suggested that a part of the budget raised currently from tourism income in these locations be used to fund a six month stay for these people who support this concept to stay in parts of London or Paris or indeed several other European cities where uncontrolled migration has not worked and where walking the streets at night or attending a Christmas Market is Russian Roulette. For Asylum seekers, some are genuine and need help, but many are not genuine and most are male. Regardless, they all need feeding, housing, schooling for their many children, they need medical facilities, money for food and they probably would like transport providing for free as they won’t be working. The local budget needs to provide all these things and dare we go back to the maths lesson again and point out that the local budget, aside from losing 25% or so from reduced tourism, will need to increase its spend by a significant percentage to fund its new found situation. The balance required will, of course, come from increased taxation which means increased prices for those tourists that still travel but which will dwindle through time anyway as they move on to the next big (cheaper/safer/authentic) alternative. People should remember that La La Land is a film and it does not exist in reality

The success of cities or countries created through travel and tourism should not be considered as a pariah by those that, perhaps without realising, benefit greatly from it. Don’t bite off the hand that feeds you.

Mark Thomas

Demonstrating Stupidity

Next on the Line

It’s strange but the last bastion of European nationalism with regards to travel, the rail sector, seems to have gone berserk recently with announcement following announcement about rail operators plans for expansion not just on their home patch but also in other countries and indeed across Europe. Last month we wrote about Italian operator FS Italiane who operate the Trenitalia brand and who announced plans to start operations between London and Paris by 2029 as part of a 1 billion Euro investment. At the same time, the never to miss a PR opportunity that is Richard Branson, together with a company no-one has ever heard of, Gemini Trains, announced they too had plans to start their own international services.

One month later and we have two other players making noises with train operator Eurostar (remember Eurostar is an operator not a tunnel), announcing plans to start three new services from London to Germany and Switzerland. They plan to operate to Frankfurt and Geneva as well as linking Amsterdam with Geneva when they get 50 new trains in the early 2030’s. That’s a long time to wait on the platform!

Not to be outdone, Flixtrain, better known through its sister company coach operator Flixbus, has ordered 65 trains worth 2.5 billion Euros as it aims to ramp up its services across Europe. They currently operate high speed services across Germany and into Switzerland.

Unlike the aviation sector where you can book a flight from anywhere in Europe to anywhere else on one ticket (Low-Cost Airlines excluded), the rail sector doggedly ignored the EU attempts to bring it into the 20^th Century (yes, we mean 20^th). The rail operators were a bastion of national identity and control was not going to be relinquished so easily; so it proved. The easiest way to stop encroachment onto their patch was to ensure there was no European centralised booking platforms that could issue multi rail operator tickets and also to certainly ban non-native train operators from their domestic tracks. Cutting the phone line to the EU also helped, unless they needed financial assistance in which case the phones lines suddenly worked.

The tide is now turning though it has not entirely turned just yet and it may not be long – ok, a decade – before seamless rail travel across open borders in Europe is the norm. Don’t hold your breath too early then.

Fine to Stand Up

In a move which can have far reaching effects on Bulgarians air travel habits, the Turkish government is talking about fining passengers for standing up before the seat belt sign is activated! The directive aims to target passengers who whilst a plane is landing: –

• Unfasten seat belts
• Stand up
• Open the overhead bins
• Crowd the aisle while the plane is still taxing to the gate
• Standing up or proceeding into the aisle before it’s the rows turn to exit.

Anyone who travels regularly with Ryanair or Wizz to or from Bulgaria will see the logic in this as from the airline’s perspective, it’s a huge potential cash cow! Sic.

Bang Bang

The return of supersonic travel may be closer than ever as President Trump has signed an order that repeals a ban that was first implemented in 1973 that banned domestic supersonic flights due to fears of noise levels. The move will accelerate the re-introduction of supersonic travel that has been lost since Concorde was removed from the skies.  The move also follows China announcing its own supersonic programme, a move that the USA was hardly likely to ignore.

The repeal of such prohibitions means that theoretically, by the 2030’s supersonic flights will be common place once again. Behind the scenes technical work has been ongoing for some time in the sphere of supersonic travel, but without the goal posts being in sight, the advancement of the technology required to make this ambition real was always a potential deal breaker. That has now been removed.

What is less clear is whether success in this field domestically in the USA will then expand to supersonic flights on an intercontinental basis.

There there was Three

Frankfurt Airport, an important hub for local travellers and the epicentre of the German aviation sector is about to open a new Terminal 3.

The new terminal will initially serve 19 million passengers per year and eventually will cater for 25 million passengers a year once fully operational. The facility will cover the equivalent of 25 football fields and have a total footprint is some 176,000m2. The Lufthansa Group and their numerous brands are expected to be the main user of the new terminal which will also have 12,000m2 of retail space for those with spare time and spare cash in their pockets.

Bags of Reduction

The incidence of bags getting lost between flights continues to decrease with the figures for 2024 showing the number of bags being mishandled as 6.3 per 1000, down from 6.9 the previous year and in total terms, a 67% reduction since 2007!

Asia had the lowest losses at 3.1 bags per 1000, North and South America came in at 5.5 whilst the Middle East and Africa was 6.02 That leaves Europe as the elephant in the corner with 12.3 lost per 1000 bags. Of the 33.4 million mishandled bags last year, 66% were resolved within 48 hours.

Technology is proving to be the catalyst that is driving this improvement, with real time tracking the obvious leader. Indeed, some 42% of all passengers had access to real time baggage updates, up from 38% the previous year whilst 66% of all airlines offer automated bag drop services with another 16% planning to do so before the end of next year.

World’s Best Airline Again

Having the ability to call yourself the world’s leading airline is worth its weight in Gold in the eyes of a Marketing department and the Qatar Airways Marketing Department must be pretty happy and even gloating as for the 9^thsuccessive year it has been voted the World’s Top Airline according to Skytrax.  It finished ahead of Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific whilst Turkish was voted top airline in Europe, no doubt much to the chagrin of BA, Air France and Lufthansa. The full top 10 being: –

1. Qatar Airways
2. Singapore Airlines
3. Cathay Pacific
4. Emirates
5. All Nippon Airways
6. Turkish Airlines
7. Korean Air
8. Air France
9. Japan Airlines
10. Hainan Airlines

Awards were also made for the world’s best Low-Cost Airlines though today, the criteria that defines what is and what is not a Low-Cost Airline is blurred to say the least. From a European viewpoint, included in this top 10 in 4th place are Eurowings (a Lufthansa brand), Transavia came in 7^th and EasyJet filled 10^th place.

Vertical only way Upwards

The Paris and Farnborough Air Shows run on alternate years and they are big news for airlines and plane manufacturers alike as these are the occasions when both buyers and sellers like to make a noise regarding what they are buying (hence their fleet plans for the future) and also what they are selling i.e. what deals they have done. These deals are not something cobbled together over canapes and a bottle or two of Tattinger, but rather something that has been in the planning for months and even years. These deals are talked about in hundreds of millions of Dollars/Euro’s and even billions. One deal that did catch the eye though is for something rather different.

Eve Air Mobility announced it was singing its first order for 50 eVTOL aircraft with Revo, a Brazilian based urban air mobility company whose parent company is Omni Helicopters. Eve Air itself is financially backed by aircraft manufacturer Embraer.

To cut to the chase, these machines are hyper modern helicopter type machines that some predict will become common place in our skies in the next decade. They will or can replace short commuter flights or they can be the play thing of the rich and famous as a form of short distance travel.  In Brazil where much of this activity and technology is based, the city of Sao Paulo sees 2000 helicopter take off and landings per day.

Two decades ago, here in Bulgaria having your own winery was a fashion, that fashion then moved to owning a yacht and becoming a member of a golf club. Maybe next in line is having your own eVTOL strip next to the place where your Ferrari is parked.

Dubai in Demand

Which came first, the chicken or the egg? In the world of travel, the same question is what comes first: supply or demand? The logical answer to this if you are an academic who has never worked in the real world is that demand creates supply, in today’s world more often than not if you have something that’s good, people will buy it: simple.

When the likes of EasyJet and Ryanair started, they would fly – for example – from the UK to places in France that no-one outside of France had ever heard of. From France, they would fly to places in the UK that no-one outside the UK had ever heard of! That didn’t stop the rise and upward rise in the demand for the flights as often, these destinations were not a million miles from where your eventual destination was and invariably, they also resulted in a significant cost savings. How many “main” airports could you fly to in France pre the year 2000? Perhaps inadvertently they also created, or at least stimulated short break holidays, AirBnB use, the purchase of second homes and many more reasons why people could travel. Here in Sofia, more recently we have seen similar examples of flights to relatively obscure airports that are not far from major urban areas e.g. Memmingen for Munich, Bergamo for Milan as well as creating demand to visit places that were not so easy to get to e.g. Catania in Sicily and Naples and Treviso (Venice) in Italy. Another destination that is also riding the wave is Dubai.

The first direct flight from Sofia to Dubai was in September 2017 and from those first tentative steps, Fly Dubai will soon operate up to 10 direct flights per week out of Sofia to the Emirate and the demand shows no sign of letting up! Add onto this the fact that Wizz will also fly to nearby Abu Dhabi 5 times per week; the transfer time from here to many parts of Dubai is no more than an hour. This clearly shows that if supply is created, at the right price of course, then the demand will follow. It just requires some creative thinking from airlines and also, a product that, through clever marketing, people want a piece of.

One is Greater than Two

Whatever happens in America invariably finds its way to other parts of the world; sadly. The latest encroachment into what may be described as stupidity sees some airlines charging more for travel if you are alone than if you are travelling with someone.  After this was first spotted, numerous samples appeared with several airlines, though it should be pointed out that thus far, it applies to domestic travel and not international travel.

Samples cited include a quote of 199 USD for a flight for one person but when the quote was for two people, the price dropped to 118 USD per person. Another example saw a one-person quote coming in at 422 USD whereas when the number was changed to two people, the fare dropped to 266 USD per person

The airlines themselves will be as vague as possible as to how this arises but one train of thought is that when a quote for one person is applied, the ‘’system’ assumes this is for business travel purposes and thinks it can charge more.

Whatever the thinking, this will hopefully be something we don’t find becoming the norm in Europe. The concept however may appeal to the likes of Ryanair and Wizz as they continue to stretch the imagination at times.

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