November 2024 Newsletter
- November 30, 2024
- Posted by: Jamadvice
- Category: 2024

Editorial
All Change No Change
The world is changing rapidly, indeed to many people’s perception, far too rapidly with changes in our world often viewed as irrational, illogical and poorly thought out. In the world of travel, the question came to mind of how fast are things changing, if at all? Are the problems we all face today the same as years ago or have we moved on and now face encounters not previously seen nor considered.
Looking at the world of travel as it stood five years ago in November 2019, this was of course the pre-covid era and the world generally had not been subjected to the brainwashing, real or otherwise, that seems to have become rooted in society today. The world of travel was getting to grips and discussing the recent fall out of European Tour Operating giant Thomas Cook, who had just abruptly entered bankruptcy proceedings. The discussion point being how would such as loss of capacity (tourists) be felt in holiday hotspots across Europe and what would be the economic fall out from it for countries and hotels and anything else connected irrevocably with the tourism industry? Five years on the answer is clear – nothing happened! Actually, it did but not in the negative sense. Other Travel Agents absorbed the bookings that normally went via Thomas Cook Agencies, other Tour Operators took the slack and the contracts for hotels et al vacated by Thomas Cook Tour Operations and perhaps most importantly, the airline capacity that became available from the space vacated by Thomas Cook Airlines was a golden egg for the likes of EasyJet, Ryanair and other new entrants to the world of aviation who immediately ramped up flights to holiday destinations across Europe. It is also visible now that the demise of Thomas Cook the airline, also created the opportunity for smaller charter airlines to gain traction with new clients (Tour Operators) who had taken up the slack from the fall out. Perversely a happy ending relatively and even a catalyst for even greater growth for EasyJet and Ryanair. Note also in our article this month titled “Needs Must” we mention the partial shift in focus towards leisure destinations for the likes of Lufthansa and BA who for many years had closed their eyes to business opportunities in this field.
That was news from a mere five years ago but news that perhaps feels much older. Seven years ago, all the noise and focus of attention was around GDPR and how safe was our own personal data. Not since the Y2K scam had out of work consultants seen such an opportunity to boost their profile and whilst the word scam is not ideal for GDPR, the safety of our own data today is arguably no safer than it was seven years ago.
We, as a company have enormous pressure placed on us to ensure the data, we collect from our clients is secured safely and free from access to outsiders. We are not unique in this and still, huge corporations and indeed government institutions regularly report security issues with data being accessed illegally. Hotels, car hire companies and frequent flyer services operated by airlines were once considered soft targets by criminals, but as these organisations involved in the travel industry upped their game in protecting their data, the people illegally trying to access such data also became smarter and they were joined by state players who operated for reasons other than financial gain: North Korea excepted. So, the question begs, is the world any different this November from November seven years ago? Probably not and it might even get worse.
In our editorial of seven years ago re GDPR, we cited the case where a US security team hacked the operating systems of an aircraft. We also noted that whilst this was a friendly government testing its capabilities, in today’s world there are not so friendly country’s who are currently threatening the west with a wave of cyber warfare. To under estimate this would be at your own peril for there is no doubt that anything that operates off and with data is vulnerable in one way or another. We see this being played out already in the Ukraine and there is a thin grey line from operating in a cold war type environment to bringing that into our everyday lives.
The bottom line is that the world changes but it’s still pretty much the same but re-packaged.
Mark Thomas
Managing Director
Jamadvice Travel | BCD Bulgaria
Almost There
It looks like Bulgaria may soon become a “full” Schengen member in 2025 after the right noises came out of a meeting of EU interior ministers in Budapest. The country became a “part” member in March of this year in that Bulgaria’s air and sea ports became part of the Schengen zone but not the land borders. A somewhat strange hybrid but this was perhaps best viewed as a step in the right direction. The new state of play indicates that by the end of this year, a date will be set whereby Bulgaria becomes a full Schengen member.
From a tourism perspective the potential benefit of the absence of a border between Bulgaria and both Romania and Greece will allow potentially even more Romanian and Greek tourists to holiday in Bulgaria. Romanians are already the number one source market for the country’s tourism numbers.
The flip side of full membership is that it will also make it easier for Bulgarians to visit Greece, the numbers of which seem to be in the ascendancy as the value for money there is perceived by many to be better.
Back on Track
For those with time on their hands and who think they are helping the environment, the direct train link between Amsterdam and London will re-start in February following its temporary suspension in June whilst Amsterdam station was renovated. During this time, passengers on the route had to disembark in Brussels for around 30 mins to undergo passport controls.
When the service recommences, the trains will have capacity of 440 seats, up from the previous 275, with the plan to raise this capacity to up to 700 passengers.
The journey time is just over 4 hours which in reality would make the overall journey between the two cities pretty similar to travelling by plane when you factor in waiting time at airports and the respective commutes to and from the airport. What is open to debate is which option is the cheaper and which gives the better value for money; train or plane.
Who Needs The Russians Anyway?
The Bulgarian Tourism Ministry is optimistic that its goal to attract 13 million visitors and 14 billion Leva in revenue will be attained in 2024. Up to the end of September, visitor numbers had reached 10.7 million which is the highest ever for the period.
In terms of total visitor numbers, Romanian tourists lead the way with citizens of the UK, Germany, Poland, Czechia, Spain, Italy and France also making significant contributions to the total visitor numbers.
Needs Must
The business plans of airlines seem to ebb and flow depending on the flavour of the moment. Not so long ago the traditional airlines frowned on the suggestion that they operate to primarily leisure destinations as this was “way below them”. When they eventually realised that someone else (Ryanair, Wizz, Easyjet etc) had happily taken control of flights to leisure destinations and they were not only well patronised (bums on seats), they were also profitable, then they had a change of heart and the last few years has seen them playing catch up. Its now becoming commonplace to see the likes of BA and Lufthansa flying to the Greek Islands, the Balearics and even to ski resort airports; what else could you do with your business hub and spoke aircraft at weekends?
Amongst this diversification of the marketing product, the traditional airlines are also moving away from flying from main hub airport to main hub airport and looking closer at so called secondary airports not previously serviced, especially if such flights can carry hub traffic as well as point to point traffic; a win-win scenario for them.
The Lufthansa Group plans for new routes in summer throws in some interesting names. Lufthansa will launch flight from Frankfurt to Bydgoszcz in Poland (that could be fun with the tannoy announcements), whilst Austrian will fly to Sylt in Germany which is an island in the North Sea, although its proximity to Denmark might make it attractive for Danes in the south west of that country. Swiss meanwhile will launch flights to that well known (not) German North Sea town of Heringsdorf, one assumes for summer sun!
Also, it should be mentioned that Austrian will start operations to Burgas to join its existing operations to Varna, a route that is now well established by Austrian.
Hotels Boom
Lately we have provided regular updates about the state of play in the hotel sector and in particular in the area of hotels under construction or planned. Whilst such detail may be somewhat dull on the outside, looking deeper they are a marvellous indicator or understanding both of how an economy is performing and also how the future looks for travel. That is, if more and more hotels are being built and planned in the future, then there is little worry about the minority’s rants about trying to restrict people’s ability to travel. On this score, one assumes supply will match demand and there seems to be no shortage of people happy to provide the supply.
So, in the first nine months of this year, Europe has seen 220 new hotels open adding 29,600 rooms into the equation. When the year ends, a total of 327 new hotels will be in operation adding 43,000 hotel rooms into the industry. Looking further ahead, 2025 will see 350 new hotels and 51,500 rooms added. These will be followed in 2026 by 426 new hotels and 57,350 rooms. Of all the hotels in the pipeline, around half were already under construction i.e. They are more than promises.
What is interesting is that hotel developments seem to be focussed around “upper upscale” properties, followed by “upscale” properties and also upper “mid-scale properties.” Perhaps this translates to people have more disposable income these days!
The UK leads the new hotels chart with nearly 300 projects of which 75 are in London and 23 in Manchester. Germany has 172 projects and Turkey 123.
The Good and Bad
There are two sides to every story. Our article above re. “Hotels Boom” indicates a feel-good factor within the hospitality sector with the future looking bright; geopolitical disasters avoided of course. The Marriott Hotel group are one of the world’s major players in the hotel industry and they, like their competitors, like to keep the markets happy with positive financial news which is accompanied by equally positive spin. Just for the record they have just announced that globally, their average daily rate increased by 2,5% to 182.24 USD per night and in Europe, those figures are up 5.8% to 248.24 USD with occupancy increased by 2.7% to 77.3%. Total revenue increased by 6% to nearly 6.3 billion USD. At the end though starts the real story: income is down from 752 million USD to 584 million compared with last year.
Like all good capitalist entities, the fact that income is 584 million USD needs to be understood fully as shareholder dividends need to be protected and the easiest way to do this is akin to an accountant’s utopia: get rid of staff. Thus, the group has announced they will be getting rid of 833 employees in January (Merry Christmas). Of course, this is, as per the script says, “all part of a strategic review’’ and it is noted that those impacted will be invited to apply for new job openings, no doubt following a page from the airlines text book, on a much lower salary.
The markets will give their nod of approval as too will the investment funds and the Directors will get their bonuses for turning things around. That’s how the world works.
Bleisure Boost
It is widely considered that there are two streams of travel: business and leisure. Both support each other and nowadays there is also what is referred to as “bleisure”, a hybrid where people travelling for business, stay longer in their destination for personal travel. The business travel sector tends also to reflect how an economy or an industry sector is performing. Since Covid, many of the numbers analysed for business travel have yet to reach pre Covid level but that’s about to change.
Across Europe, spending on business travel will reach 360.4 billion Euro in 2024 which is a 10% increase on 2023. This figure is expected to reach 476.6 billion Euros by 2028. It should however be noted that these figures are helped with inflation and the general increased costs of airfares and hotel stays.
What is also interesting is that for 2024, the increase in business travel spending in “Emerging Europe” i.e. Eastern Europe is greater than in Western Europe 14.7% compared with 9.8%. though it should be noted that it was the reverse in the three years prior and immediately post Covid.
Protection USA Style
The USA has long lagged behind the EU in how it protects travellers in the aviation sector. Indeed, in the USA there is very little protection for delays and cancellations et al like we see in Europe, with the airlines able to do what they want and how they want. Complaints from travellers such as if a flight has been stood idle on the tarmac for hours is likely to see those complaining arrested! That though is changing.
From the end of October 2024, a new US Department of Transportation regulation came into effect regarding “cancelled or significantly changed flights”. Under this regulation in the event of flight cancellations or delays/changes exceeding six hours, customers must be informed of their right of a refund. To ensure compliance with this regulation, any affected customer who declines re-accommodation options must receive a refund automatically. Refunds for fares paid by credit card must be automatically processed within 7 days whilst refunds for other payment methods must be done within 20 calendar days. At the same time the onus is placed on the airlines to initiate the actions and not to wait for customers to take the initial action.
Here in Europe the period where compensation kicks in is 3 hours whilst the USA’s rule of 6 hours will allow many potential delays to escape punishment. However, the rule regarding the time frame when compensation must be paid is an excellent concept and one which the EU should take note of. Too often certain airlines, particularly Low-Cost Airlines hold back such refunds and cite anything and everything they can to keep their own cash flow in a healthy state.
Parking Dis-Pleasure
Sofia Airport opened the first part of its new outdoor parking facility at the end of October with the opening of the P3 section “it will provide a convenient and modern parking solution to meet your pre-trip needs”. What it doesn’t say is how much that will cost! This first opened section is not a huge distance from the arrival/departure terminals but will be an interesting challenge in the wind, sleet and snow. The so named P4 section also opened shortly afterwards on the 26thNovember and is a (quote) “budget alternative designed for longer stays”.
As is the case with most airports across Europe these days, cars delivering travellers to and collecting passengers from the airport are also seen as a lucrative profit centre providing a vertically integrated system of extracting as much money from airport users as is possible. Airport users already pay a tax which is built into the flight ticket cost simply to use the airport. Nowadays travelling to the airport is also taxed and we don’t want to reference the suggestion that Sofia Airport has the most expensive coffee of any known European airport. The flip side is that there has been a significant improvement to its infrastructure under the new tenants.
The new parking facility also has its own online booking system where visitors can pre book their parking slots. What is not clear though is if the airport will be partnering with a finance company to offer credit facilities. Sic.
Long ago we warned that despite there never being a mention of it, barriers would appear to stop the free drop off and collection of passengers by car to the airport in line with other European facilities. Indeed, the barriers are placed but you didn’t need to be a rocket scientist to foresee that.
What will be an interesting watch is observing the local habits of avoiding paying for something that was always free. Expect mayhem and some heated exchanges in the next months in the vicinity of the airport.
Wizz Numbers Hit
Ever wondered what it costs an airline to operate a flight? A clue can be found in the latest financials of Wizz who revealed that during its own financial year H1 the cost per available seat km excluding fuel was 3 Euro cents. Of course, the cost of fuel is a major cost and the reason why this figure excludes the cost of fuel is that taxes on a ticket supposedly increase and decrease depending on the price of fuel. In theory that is.
This detail was mentioned by Wizz as they sought to create a positive spin on a half year when they have had to struggle. This is down to the fact that there has been issues with the engines on their fleet of A320 planes which have resulted in planes being taken out of service for safety inspections. As a result, the airlines net income was down 21.3% to 315 million Euro although it had a bank account of cash showing 460 million Euro, this however is a significant reduction on the 785 million Euro at the end of the previous period.
It not fair to suggest that the business model of Wizz is struggling as losing planes from your fleet for reasons which are out of your control do not translate to bad management. What is clear though from the noises coming out of Wizz is that for the remainder of the financial year, attention will be paid to cost control and operational efficiency. Translated, this can either mean don’t expect anything for free or expect to pay more for those bags and seat selections. Oh yes, also don’t expect any refunds to expedited.
Travel By App
The EU’s latest pet project sees it proposing digital passports and ID cards to facilitate speedier border controls and more secure travel. The idea is that this digitalisation will be available for anyone entering or leaving the Schengen area.
In short, perhaps frighteningly, this project revolves around such information being stored on an “EU travel app” which will contain the information stored in the chip of a passport or ID card such as facial image though not (obviously) fingerprints. The app would be available to all EU and non-EU citizens with a biometric passport or ID card travelling to or from the Schengen area; of which Bulgaria will soon be a full member.
What was curious in the press blurb connected with this job creation scheme, was the comment that by using such an app the user can “’submit their travel plans in advance to the border authorities”. Is it really necessary to say you what your exact ultimate destination is going to be. If you were planning to do something untoward you would tell the entry at Schengen you were going in the opposite direction and there are no borders anyway!
The other comment on this would also be: don’t forget your phone and make sure its fully charged and if there is a blind spot in the telephone reception at a border (for security reasons), then get your passport out.
Ever get the feeling that someday there will be a bounce against smart phones?
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